1950 Northshore Dr · Greers Ferry, AR 72067

$158,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Manufactured public records · 119 Days on market

Built 1993 0.49 ac lot $124/sqft · 154% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PERFECT LAKE VIEW CORNER LOT. This home is all electric with 3 bedroom 2 bath and comes with most furnishings. It sits on a . 49 wooded lot with concrete driveway and a storage shed. Great area for permanent or a vacation home. Awesome covered screened front porch is super large for all your entertaining. Call Today !!

Key facts

• Wooded lot
• Lake view
• Storage shed

Tags

• LAKE VIEW
• CORNER LOT
• WOODED LOT
• CONCRETE DRIVEWAY
• STORAGE SHED
• COVERED SCREENED PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-266 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $120k (24.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $105k (33.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $105k (33.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 1.8% in Greers Ferry — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#251 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D, amenities F.
• West Side School District (rural): math 29% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #118 of 238 in AR (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 165 active listings in the ZIP; 13 units permitted in Cleburne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (7.6% local appreciation)).
• Cleburne County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $78k; list at $159k implies a 104% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,286 (33.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.18%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $62,544
• List price: $158,900
• Delta: 154.06%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

7.59% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.00×
• Total profit: $44,371
• Equity at exit: $116,318

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.18×
• Total profit: $141,330
• Equity at exit: $226,812

Cash invested: $44,492 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72067

• Home prices YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,053 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$833
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$199 /mo · $2,384/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$221
• Net cashflow: $-266

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,390

Max offer price $120,358

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,725
• Closing costs: $4,767
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $158,900 Active 119 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $158,900 Active 118 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $158,900 Active 117 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $158,900 Active 116 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $158,900 Active 115 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $158,900 Active 113 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $158,900 Active 112 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $158,900 Active 109 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $158,900 Active 108 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $158,900 Active 107 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $158,900 Active 106 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $158,900 Active 103 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $158,900 Active 102 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $158,900 Active 101 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $158,900 Active 100 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $158,900 Active 99 DOM
17. 2026-02-20
    listed $158,900 New Listing 321-char remark

    Show marketing remark (321 chars)

    PERFECT LAKE VIEW CORNER LOT. This home is all electric with 3 bedroom 2 bath and comes with most furnishings. It sits on a . 49 wooded lot with concrete driveway and a storage shed. Great area for permanent or a vacation home. Awesome covered screened front porch is super large for all your entertaining. Call Today !!

18. 2026-02-19
    historical
19. 2025-08-18
    listed $158,900 New Listing
20. 2010-08-06
    soldstatus $78,000
21. 2010-08-06
    soldstatus $78,000
22. 2010-07-22
    historical
23. 2009-08-14
    listed $92,000
24. 1985-08-13
    soldstatus $15,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,634
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,901
• − Property taxes: −$2,384
• − Insurance: −$794
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,011
• − Management: −$1,011
• − Depreciation: −$4,623
• Taxable loss: −$6,088
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,461
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,735/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Side School District
• NCES district ID: 0514040
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $39,658
• Composite: 29.31/100
• National rank: #6551
• State rank: #118 of 238 in AR

Livability — Greers Ferry

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #251
• US rank: #18144

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,881
• Population (ZIP): 2,881

Population outlook (Cleburne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,198 people
• By 2030: 23,324 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 21,566 · -10.9%
• By 2050: 19,916 · -17.7%
• By 2075: 16,744 · -30.8%
• By 2100: 13,303 · -45.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Serbian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Cleburne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.9) · D 15.2% · R 83.2% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.7pp toward R · 2008: -44.2pp · 2024: -67.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.9 2020: R+65.8 2016: R+61.4 2012: R+52.2 2008: R+44.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.59%
• Current HPI: 245.97
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+959.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-20 Listed $158,900 CARMLS
• 2026-02-19 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2025-08-18 Listed $158,900 CARMLS
• 2010-08-06 Sold (Public Records) $78,000 Public Records
• 2010-08-06 Sold (MLS) $78,000 CARMLS
• 2010-07-22 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2009-08-14 Listed $92,000 CARMLS
• 1985-08-13 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $276 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.