Picasso Plan

Charlottesville, VA 22901

$389,000D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,617 sqft · Built — · Townhouse · Active · 84 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,115/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,367
• Tax + insurance: −$752
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$654
• Net cashflow: $-658/mo
• Annual: $-7,899/yr
• Cap rate: 4.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.25%
• DSCR: 0.72
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $126,387

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $389k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-658 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $356k (8.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $312k (19.9% below list).
• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($366k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $312k (19.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#27 in VA, #707 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living D, crime D-.
• Albemarle County Public School District (rural): math 66% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #14 of 131 in VA (top 11%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Agnor-Hurt Elementary (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #794 of 1,108 statewide, top 74%, 438 students, 73% FRL); Jackson P. Burley Middle (math 59% / reading 71%, grade A-, #120 of 342 statewide, top 35%, 586 students, 45% FRL); Albemarle High (math 70% / reading 85%, grade A-, #83 of 319 statewide, top 28%, 1,987 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 23% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 458 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 810 units permitted in Albemarle County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Albemarle County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 2.9% in Charlottesville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.