Picasso Plan · Charlottesville, VA 22901

$389,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,617 sqft · Townhouse · 84 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Grand Opening at Victorian Heights, offering two-story, townhome-style condos with 1-car garages in a prime Charlottesville location just off Berkmar Drive. Perched atop the Matisse, this unique two-level home is designed to be both practical and stylish. The first-floor features plenty of room and an open floorplan that lets light flow through the entire area. A living room and separate dining area make entertaining a breeze - or choose the optional study and work from home. A powder room and coat closet are conveniently located just off the stair. The kitchen is a gourmet's dream with huge work island and pantry cabinet.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Dual walk-in closets
• Open floorplan

Tags

• TWO-STORY TOWNHOME
• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• COVERED PORCH
• OWNER'S SUITE
• DUAL WALK-IN CLOSETS

🏗️ New construction. The $389,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $451,381.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $389k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-658 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $356k (8.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $312k (19.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $312k (19.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 2.9% in Charlottesville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#27 in VA, #707 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living D, crime D-.
• Albemarle County Public School District (rural): math 66% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #14 of 131 in VA (top 11%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Agnor-Hurt Elementary (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #794 of 1,108 statewide, top 74%, 438 students, 73% FRL); Jackson P. Burley Middle (math 59% / reading 71%, grade A-, #120 of 342 statewide, top 35%, 586 students, 45% FRL); Albemarle High (math 70% / reading 85%, grade A-, #83 of 319 statewide, top 28%, 1,987 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 23% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 458 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 810 units permitted in Albemarle County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Albemarle County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($366k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $311,538 (19.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.25%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $451,381
• List price: $389,000
• Delta: -13.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
802 Wesley Ln Unit B	0.90mi	3/2.5	2,564 (-2%)	11mo	$419,800	$164	52
602 Noush Ct Unit B	0.98mi	3/2.5	2,345 (-10%)	2mo	$425,000	$181	46
822 Wesley Ln Unit B	0.87mi	3/2.5	2,451 (-6%)	10mo	$404,000	$165	46
913 Salamander St Unit B	1.01mi	3/2.5	2,451 (-6%)	15mo	$409,900	$167	42
654 Noush Ct Unit B	0.88mi	3/2.5	2,451 (-6%)	21mo	$385,000	$157	37
678 Noush Ct Unit B	0.85mi	3/2.5	2,345 (-10%)	16mo	$405,000	$173	35
680 Noush Ct Unit B	0.85mi	3/2.5	2,345 (-10%)	16mo	$420,000	$179	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-115,583
• Equity at exit: $67,302

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.24×
• Total profit: $-156,743
• Equity at exit: $39,027

Cash invested: $126,387 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 11 active · 7 under contract
• Months of supply: 66.0 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $399,000 ($152/sqft)
• Median days on market: 14 d
• This list price: 36% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +13.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 22901

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 458
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,115 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$564 /mo · $6,771/yr
• Insurance: −$188
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$654
• Net cashflow: $-658

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,949

Max offer price $356,132

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-346	-5% $-502	+0% $-658	+5% $-814	+10% $-970
Rent	-10% $-904	-5% $-781	+0% $-658	+5% $-535	+10% $-412
Rate	-1.0pp $-431	-0.5pp $-543	base $-658	+0.5pp $-775	+1.0pp $-894

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,845
• Closing costs: $13,541
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1664 Redington Ln Charlottesville, VA	4.0	2.5	2556	$3,250	$1.27	93d	1	1.12mi
1600 Old Brook Rd Charlottesville, VA	4.0	3.5	3108	$3,595	$1.16	93d	1	1.13mi
1236 Raintree Dr Charlottesville, VA	4.0	4.0	2524	$3,595	$1.42	93d	1	1.15mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: ActiveLast modified: 2026-05-21
• Financial info: List price $399,000

Exterior

• Parking: 1 parking space
• Utilities: Has central cooling
• Home design: Model/plan home named PicassoLocated in Charlottesville, VA (22901)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,617

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Plan home (Picasso)Active new-construction plan

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $389,000 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $389,000 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $389,000 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $389,000 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $389,000 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   pricedays on market $389,000 Active 79 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $379,000 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-07-29
   days on market $379,000 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-07-27
   days on market $379,000 Active 72 DOM
10. 2026-07-25
    days on market $379,000 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    pricedays on market $379,000 Active 68 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $389,990 Active 67 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    pricedays on market $389,990 Active 66 DOM
14. 2026-07-18
    days on market $389,000 Active 64 DOM
15. 2026-07-16
    pricedays on market $389,000 Active 62 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $399,000 Active 61 DOM
17. 2026-07-14
    pricedays on market $399,000 Active 60 DOM
18. 2026-07-13
    days on market $409,990 Active 59 DOM
19. 2026-07-12
    days on market $409,990 Active 58 DOM
20. 2026-07-11
    days on market $409,990 Active 57 DOM
21. 2026-07-10
    days on market $409,990 Active 56 DOM
22. 2026-07-09
    days on market $409,990 Active 55 DOM
23. 2026-07-08
    days on market $409,990 Active 54 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $409,990 Active 53 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $409,990 Active 52 DOM
26. 2026-07-05
    days on market $409,990 Active 51 DOM
27. 2026-07-04
    days on market $409,990 Active 50 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $409,990 Active 49 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $409,990 Active 48 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $409,990 Active 47 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $409,990 Active 46 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $409,990 Active 45 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $409,990 Active 44 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $409,990 Active 43 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $409,990 Active 42 DOM
36. 2026-06-25
    days on market $409,990 Active 40 DOM
37. 2026-06-23
    days on market $409,990 Active 38 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    pricedays on market $409,990 Active 37 DOM
39. 2026-06-19
    days on market $379,990 Active 35 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $379,990 Active 34 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $379,990 Active 33 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    price $379,990 Active 32 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $374,990 Active 32 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $374,990 Active 31 DOM
45. 2026-06-14
    days on market $374,990 Active 29 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    pricedays on market $374,990 Active 28 DOM
47. 2026-06-10
    days on market $399,990 Active 26 DOM
48. 2026-06-09
    days on market $399,990 Active 25 DOM
49. 2026-06-08
    days on market $399,990 Active 24 DOM
50. 2026-06-07
    days on market $399,990 Active 23 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,385
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,284
• − Property taxes: −$6,771
• − Insurance: −$2,257
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,991
• − Management: −$2,991
• − Depreciation: −$13,131
• Taxable loss: −$16,040
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,850
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,049/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $13,085–$39,255 screening

This townhouse is in good condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms. It has a good roof and siding, and the interior walls and flooring are in excellent condition. The home is move-in ready with minimal maintenance required.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior walls — Painting the exterior walls can enhance curb appeal and increase the home's value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Landscaping improvements can enhance curb appeal and increase the home's value. ↑
• Both Interior updates — Interior updates can enhance the home's appeal and increase its value for both resale and rental purposes. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

C Composite school gradezoned avg 63/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Agnor-Hurt Elementary D- VA #794/1,108 Nat'l #14,504/41,679 Middle Jackson P. Burley Middle A- VA #120/342 Nat'l #1,236/14,009 High Albemarle High A- VA #83/319 Nat'l #1,334/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Albemarle County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100090
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $67,851
• Composite: 62.28/100
• National rank: #698
• State rank: #14 of 131 in VA

A Composite livability gradescore 84/100

Livability — Charlottesville

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #27
• US rank: #707

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime D- Employment B+ Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Albemarle County · 119,403 people
• City population: 120,202
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• Population (ZIP): 37,237
• Household income: $92,145
• Rent vs Own: 43.2% rent · 56.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Albemarle County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 119,403 people
• By 2030: 125,829 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 137,705 · +15.3%
• By 2050: 148,058 · +24.0%
• By 2075: 172,223 · +44.2%
• By 2100: 185,628 · +55.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 6% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Albemarle

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+34.1) · D 66.3% · R 32.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.1pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 34.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+34.1 2020: D+33.5 2016: D+25.1 2012: D+12.0 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -341.65%
• Current HPI: 279.3342
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.82%
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: ActiveLast modified: 2026-05-21
• Financial info: List price $399,000

Exterior

• Parking: 1 parking space
• Utilities: Has central cooling
• Home design: Model/plan home named PicassoLocated in Charlottesville, VA (22901)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,617

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Plan home (Picasso)Active new-construction plan