406 Carpenter St

Smiley, TX 78159

$82,500C

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 910 sqft · Built 1935 · SingleFamily · Active · 145 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $868/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$433
• Tax + insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$182
• Net cashflow: $123/mo
• Annual: $1,477/yr
• Cap rate: 8.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.39%
• DSCR: 1.28
• 1% rule: 1.05%
• Cash to close: $23,100

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $82k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $123 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($868 rent vs $82k).
• It's been on market 145 days — a 12% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $73k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-0.7%/yr); year-one equity from $570 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $589 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#888 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Nixon-Smiley CISD (rural): math 38% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #451 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Nixon Smiley El (math 42% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 458 students, 86% FRL); Nixon-Smiley Middle (math 26% / reading 41%, grade F, #911 of 1,662 statewide, top 56%, 300 students, 81% FRL); Nixon-Smiley H S (math 77% / reading 57%, grade B, #163 of 1,632 statewide, top 11%, 283 students, 81% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Gonzales County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Gonzales County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-0.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 95% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 145 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.