406 Carpenter St · Smiley, TX 78159

$82,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 910 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 145 Days on market

Built 1935 0.58 ac lot $91/sqft · at area comps Est $80k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.5/30.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• ARV discount +6.2/15.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 1 bedroom, 1 bath home situated on a large lot, offering peaceful country living with room to grow. This cozy residence features a welcoming front porch that spans the width of the home - perfect for relaxing mornings or quiet evenings. Inside, the layout is simple and functional, making it ideal for a first time home buyer, downsized or weekend retreat. The expansive lot provides endless possibilities for gardening, outdoor entertaining or future possibilities for gardening, outdoor entertaining or future improvements. Enjoy privacy, space and small town charm all in one inviting property.

Key facts

• Outdoor entertaining
• Large lot
• 0.58 acre lot

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• WELCOMING FRONT PORCH
• OUTDOOR ENTERTAINING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $82k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $123 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($868 rent vs $82k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#888 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Nixon-Smiley CISD (rural): math 38% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #451 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Nixon Smiley El (math 42% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 458 students, 86% FRL); Nixon-Smiley Middle (math 26% / reading 41%, grade F, #911 of 1,662 statewide, top 56%, 300 students, 81% FRL); Nixon-Smiley H S (math 77% / reading 57%, grade B, #163 of 1,632 statewide, top 11%, 283 students, 81% FRL).
• Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Gonzales County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.7%/yr); year-one equity from $570 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $589 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gonzales County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-0.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 145 days — a 12% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 95% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $72,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 145 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.39%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $80,204
• List price: $82,500
• Delta: 2.86%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.71% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $2,703
• Equity at exit: $21,052

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $20,317
• Equity at exit: $23,090

Cash invested: $23,100 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78159

• Home prices YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 28
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $868 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$433
• Tax from tax record: −$95 /mo · $1,143/yr
• Insurance: −$34
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$182
• Net cashflow: $123

Break-even live

Break-even rent $712

Max offer price $82,500

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $170	-5% $146	+0% $123	+5% $100	+10% $76
Rent	-10% $55	-5% $89	+0% $123	+5% $157	+10% $192
Rate	-1.0pp $165	-0.5pp $144	base $123	+0.5pp $102	+1.0pp $80

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,625
• Closing costs: $2,475
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $82,500 Active 145 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $82,500 Active 142 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $82,500 Active 141 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $82,500 Active 140 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $82,500 Active 139 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $82,500 Active 137 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $82,500 Active 133 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $82,500 Active 132 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $82,500 Active 131 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $82,500 Active 128 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $82,500 Active 127 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $82,500 Active 126 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $82,500 Active 125 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $82,500 Active 124 DOM
15. 2026-03-24
    price $82,500 606-char remark

    Show marketing remark (606 chars)

    Charming 1 bedroom, 1 bath home situated on a large lot, offering peaceful country living with room to grow. This cozy residence features a welcoming front porch that spans the width of the home - perfect for relaxing mornings or quiet evenings. Inside, the layout is simple and functional, making it ideal for a first time home buyer, downsized or weekend retreat. The expansive lot provides endless possibilities for gardening, outdoor entertaining or future possibilities for gardening, outdoor entertaining or future improvements. Enjoy privacy, space and small town charm all in one inviting property.

16. 2026-01-27
    listed $90,000 Active 606-char remark

    Show marketing remark (606 chars)

    Charming 1 bedroom, 1 bath home situated on a large lot, offering peaceful country living with room to grow. This cozy residence features a welcoming front porch that spans the width of the home - perfect for relaxing mornings or quiet evenings. Inside, the layout is simple and functional, making it ideal for a first time home buyer, downsized or weekend retreat. The expansive lot provides endless possibilities for gardening, outdoor entertaining or future possibilities for gardening, outdoor entertaining or future improvements. Enjoy privacy, space and small town charm all in one inviting property.

17. 2026-01-19
    listed $82,500 Active 606-char remark

    Show marketing remark (606 chars)

    Charming 1 bedroom, 1 bath home situated on a large lot, offering peaceful country living with room to grow. This cozy residence features a welcoming front porch that spans the width of the home - perfect for relaxing mornings or quite evenings. Inside, the layout is simple and functional, making it ideal for a first time home buyer, downsizer or weekend retreat. The expansive lot provides endless possibilities for gardening, outdoor entertaining or future possibilities for gardening, outdoor entertaining or future improvements. Enjoy privacy, space and small town charm all in one inviting property.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,143 · $95/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,510 · $126/mo
• Expected delta: +$366/yr (+$31/mo · 32.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 95% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,411
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,621
• − Property taxes: −$1,143
• − Insurance: −$412
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$833
• − Management: −$833
• − Depreciation: −$2,400
• Taxable income: $168
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$40
• After-tax cash flow: $1,436/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nixon-Smiley CISD
• NCES district ID: 4832740
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $38,887
• Composite: 32.6/100
• National rank: #5674
• State rank: #451 of 826 in TX

Livability — Smiley

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #888
• US rank: #15944

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Smiley, TX
• Population (ZIP): 604

Population outlook (Gonzales County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,246 people
• By 2030: 23,060 · +3.7%
• By 2040: 24,661 · +10.9%
• By 2050: 26,046 · +17.1%
• By 2075: 29,289 · +31.7%
• By 2100: 30,112 · +35.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 62% White 37% Two or more races 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 61%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 41%

Political lean MEDSL · Gonzales

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.8) · D 22.3% · R 77.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.5pp toward R · 2008: -30.4pp · 2024: -54.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.8 2020: R+48.1 2016: R+47.8 2012: R+40.4 2008: R+30.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.71%
• Current HPI: 78.9175
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $82,500 Unlock MLS
• 2026-01-27 Listed $90,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-01-19 Listed $82,500 CTXMLS

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,143 · +13.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.