557 County Road 164

Jasper, TX 75951

$110,000C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 902 sqft · Built 2010 · SingleFamily · Active · 116 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,073/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax + insurance: −$338
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$225
• Net cashflow: $-67/mo
• Annual: $-807/yr
• Cap rate: 6.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.26%
• DSCR: 1.10
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $30,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-67 ($-807/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $98k (10.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $107k (2.4% below list).
• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($100k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $98k (10.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,225 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Jasper ISD (town): math 22% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #734 of 826 in TX (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Market conditions: 308 active listings in the ZIP; 45 units permitted in Jasper County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jasper County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.8% in Jasper — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: Paint — Painted walls show signs of wear and tear.
• Major: Flooring — Exposed subflooring suggests flooring needs replacement.
• Minor: Landscaping — Overgrown landscaping could benefit from trimming and planting.