557 County Road 164 · Jasper, TX 75951

$110,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 902 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 116 Days on market

Built 2010 Fair condition 5.00 ac lot $122/sqft · 6% below area Est $143k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Quaint and cozy home nestled in the piney woods on 5 acres of mature roaring timbers in desired area of Curtis Community down hwy 777. This two bed one bath home has a shared kitchen with living area and extra large utility/laundry room with ample storage. There is an attached one car carport attached to home and small storage shed out back. Come check out this amazing land!! Home needs minor cosmetic repairs but is definitely a hidden treasure with huge potential!

Key facts

• 5 acre lot
• Built 2010
• Listed 116 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-67 ($-807/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $98k (10.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $107k (2.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $98k (10.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.8% in Jasper — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,225 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Jasper ISD (town): math 22% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #734 of 826 in TX (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 308 active listings in the ZIP; 45 units permitted in Jasper County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jasper County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($100k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $98,124 (10.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.26%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $142,608
• List price: $110,000
• Delta: -22.87%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-21,995
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-24,214
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75951

• Active inventory: 308
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,073 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$167 /mo · $2,008/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$225
• Net cashflow: $-67

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,158

Max offer price $98,124

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 116 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 115 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 114 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 113 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $110,000 Active 111 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $110,000 Active 110 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $110,000 Active 108 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,000 Active 107 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $110,000 Active 106 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $110,000 Active 105 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $110,000 Active 102 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $110,000 Active 101 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 100 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 99 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 98 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 97 DOM
17. 2025-05-06
    listed $110,000 Active 469-char remark

    Show marketing remark (469 chars)

    Quaint and cozy home nestled in the piney woods on 5 acres of mature roaring timbers in desired area of Curtis Community down hwy 777. This two bed one bath home has a shared kitchen with living area and extra large utility/laundry room with ample storage. There is an attached one car carport attached to home and small storage shed out back. Come check out this amazing land!! Home needs minor cosmetic repairs but is definitely a hidden treasure with huge potential!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,008 · $167/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,013 · $168/mo
• Expected delta: +$5/yr ($0/mo · 0.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone A · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,880
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$2,008
• − Insurance: −$2,052
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,030
• − Management: −$1,030
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable loss: −$2,602
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$625
• After-tax cash flow: $-182/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home requires minor cosmetic repairs and maintenance, including painting, flooring replacement, and landscaping. With these updates, it has the potential to become a move-in-ready property with increased resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Paint — Painted walls show signs of wear and tear.
• Major Flooring — Exposed subflooring suggests flooring needs replacement.
• Minor Landscaping — Overgrown landscaping could benefit from trimming and planting.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint — Fresh paint can improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Flooring — Replacing the flooring will improve the home's condition and make it more appealing to potential buyers or renters.
• Both Landscaping — A well-maintained landscape can enhance the home's curb appeal and increase its value.
• Both Interior updates — Updating the interior can make the home more attractive and increase its value for both resale and rental purposes.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Paint · Painted walls show signs of wear and tear.	Minor	$500–3,000
Flooring · Exposed subflooring suggests flooring needs replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Landscaping · Overgrown landscaping could benefit from trimming and planting.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$16,000–56,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint — Fresh paint can improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Flooring — Replacing the flooring will improve the home's condition and make it more appealing to potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping — A well-maintained landscape can enhance the home's curb appeal and increase its value. ↑
• Both Interior updates — Updating the interior can make the home more attractive and increase its value for both resale and rental purposes. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jasper ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824630
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $36,286
• Composite: 19.91/100
• National rank: #8684
• State rank: #734 of 826 in TX

Livability — Jasper

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1225
• US rank: #21385

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A Health & safety C+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 15,267

Population outlook (Jasper County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,986 people
• By 2030: 32,965 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 30,908 · -9.1%
• By 2050: 28,893 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 24,828 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 19,987 · -41.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 28% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jasper

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.6) · D 16.5% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.6pp toward R · 2008: -42.0pp · 2024: -66.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.6 2020: R+61.4 2016: R+59.9 2012: R+48.4 2008: R+42.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.56%
• Current HPI: 136.7972
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-05-06 Listed $110,000 Deep East Texas MLS

Property tax history

-2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,008 · -2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.