2509 Shoma Dr

Royal Palm Beach, FL 33414

$299,900D

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 1,815 sqft · Built 2006 · Condo · Active · 304 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,232/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$597
• HOA: −$578
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$679
• Net cashflow: $-195/mo
• Annual: $-2,336/yr
• Cap rate: 5.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.83%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 1.08%
• Cash to close: $83,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath condo listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-195 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $266k (11.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $300k).
• It's been on market 304 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $264k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#135 in FL, #2,039 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Everglades Elementary (math 70% / reading 74%, grade A-, #288 of 2,144 statewide, top 15%, 888 students, 34% FRL); Emerald Cove Middle School (math 61% / reading 64%, grade B+, #116 of 571 statewide, top 21%, 1,241 students, 36% FRL); Palm Beach Central High School (math 42% / reading 55%, grade D, #198 of 667 statewide, top 30%, 2,980 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 36% FRL vs 52% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 623 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $211k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($112k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 304 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?