423 1st St NW

Cass Lake, MN 56633

$100,000B+

15 bd · 9.0 ba · 1,336 sqft · Built 1940 · SingleFamily · Active · 279 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,387/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax + insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$291
• Net cashflow: $419/mo
• Annual: $5,029/yr
• Cap rate: 11.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.96%
• DSCR: 1.80
• 1% rule: 1.39%
• Cash to close: $28,000

Investor read

• This is a 15-bed/9.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $419 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• It's been on market 279 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (6.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#319 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
• Cass Lake-Bena Public Schools (rural): math 14% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #290 of 301 in MN (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 285 units permitted in Cass County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cass County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (31%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (6.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 2.2% in Cass Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 279 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.