423 1st St NW · Cass Lake, MN 56633

$100,000

15 bd · 9.0 ba · 1,336 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 277 Days on market

Built 1940 9,583 sqft lot ↓ 29% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• Appreciation +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This triplex offers immediate cash flow with proven rental history. Currently generating $1,975 per month in gross rent, this property exceeds the 1% rule and is an excellent addition to any portfolio.

Key facts

• 9,583 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1940

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 15-bed/9.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $419 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 2.3% in Cass Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#319 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
• Cass Lake-Bena Public Schools (rural): math 14% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #290 of 301 in MN (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 285 units permitted in Cass County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (6.9% local appreciation)).
• Cass County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 277 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (31%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 277 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.96%
• DSCR: 1.80
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.89% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.18×
• Total profit: $60,967
• Equity at exit: $68,599

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.62×
• Total profit: $157,333
• Equity at exit: $129,681

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56633

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,387 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,330/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$291
• Net cashflow: $419

Break-even live

Break-even rent $857

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $476	-5% $447	+0% $419	+5% $391	+10% $362
Rent	-10% $309	-5% $364	+0% $419	+5% $474	+10% $529
Rate	-1.0pp $469	-0.5pp $445	base $419	+0.5pp $393	+1.0pp $367

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $100,000 Active 277 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 276 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 275 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 274 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 273 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $100,000 Active 271 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $100,000 Active 270 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Active 267 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $100,000 Active 266 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $100,000 Active 265 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $100,000 Active 262 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $100,000 Active 261 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $100,000 Active 260 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $100,000 Active 259 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $100,000 Active 258 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $100,000 Active 257 DOM
17. 2026-04-21
    price $100,000 201-char remark

    Show marketing remark (201 chars)

    This triplex offers immediate cash flow with proven rental history. Currently generating $1,975 per month in gross rent, this property exceeds the 1% rule and is an excellent addition to any portfolio.

18. 2026-01-07
    price $115,000 201-char remark

    Show marketing remark (201 chars)

    This triplex offers immediate cash flow with proven rental history. Currently generating $1,975 per month in gross rent, this property exceeds the 1% rule and is an excellent addition to any portfolio.

19. 2025-11-12
    price $120,000 201-char remark

    Show marketing remark (201 chars)

    This triplex offers immediate cash flow with proven rental history. Currently generating $1,975 per month in gross rent, this property exceeds the 1% rule and is an excellent addition to any portfolio.

20. 2025-10-28
    price $125,000 201-char remark

    Show marketing remark (201 chars)

    This triplex offers immediate cash flow with proven rental history. Currently generating $1,975 per month in gross rent, this property exceeds the 1% rule and is an excellent addition to any portfolio.

21. 2025-10-02
    price $130,000 201-char remark

    Show marketing remark (201 chars)

    This triplex offers immediate cash flow with proven rental history. Currently generating $1,975 per month in gross rent, this property exceeds the 1% rule and is an excellent addition to any portfolio.

22. 2025-09-22
    price $135,000 201-char remark

    Show marketing remark (201 chars)

    This triplex offers immediate cash flow with proven rental history. Currently generating $1,975 per month in gross rent, this property exceeds the 1% rule and is an excellent addition to any portfolio.

23. 2025-09-10
    listed $145,000 Active 201-char remark

    Show marketing remark (201 chars)

    This triplex offers immediate cash flow with proven rental history. Currently generating $1,975 per month in gross rent, this property exceeds the 1% rule and is an excellent addition to any portfolio.

24. 2022-09-22
    historical
25. 2022-06-24
    status Active
26. 2022-06-24
    price $114,900
27. 2022-06-22
    historical
28. 2022-03-23
    price $119,900
29. 2022-03-23
    status Active
30. 2022-03-22
    historical
31. 2021-12-29
    price $124,900
32. 2021-10-22
    price $129,900
33. 2021-09-27
    listed $139,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,330 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,330 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,648
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,330
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,332
• − Management: −$1,332
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $3,644
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$874
• After-tax cash flow: $4,154/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cass Lake-Bena Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2708070
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $36,458
• Composite: 16.58/100
• National rank: #9177
• State rank: #290 of 301 in MN

Livability — Cass Lake

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #319
• US rank: #7129

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cass Lake, MN
• Population (ZIP): 4,863

Population outlook (Cass County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,371 people
• By 2030: 26,311 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 23,945 · -12.5%
• By 2050: 21,889 · -20.0%
• By 2075: 18,435 · -32.6%
• By 2100: 14,478 · -47.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.90)
• Race & ethnicity: Native American 51% White 32% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 7% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cass

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.4) · D 32.6% · R 66.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.9pp toward R · 2008: -8.5pp · 2024: -33.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.4 2020: R+28.9 2016: R+31.7 2012: R+13.1 2008: R+8.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.89%
• Current HPI: 340.4577
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

-28.5% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $100,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $115,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-12 Price Changed $120,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-28 Price Changed $125,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $130,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-22 Price Changed $135,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-10 Listed $145,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-22 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-24 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-24 Price Changed $114,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-22 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-23 Price Changed $119,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-23 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-22 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-29 Price Changed $124,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-22 Price Changed $129,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-27 Listed $139,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+8.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,330 · +15.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.