279 Posey Dr

Carbon Hill, AL 35578

$168,000D+

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,240 sqft · Built 2006 · SingleFamily · Pending · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,604/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$881
• Tax + insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $279/mo
• Annual: $3,347/yr
• Cap rate: 8.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.12%
• DSCR: 1.32
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $47,040

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $168k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $279 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (4.5% below list).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $160k (4.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#208 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Walker County (rural): math 13% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #89 of 129 in AL (top 69%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Carbon Hill Elementaryjunior High School (math 13% / reading 31%, grade F, #442 of 627 statewide, top 72%, 492 students, 70% FRL); Carbon Hill High School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #220 of 305 statewide, top 77%, 359 students, 66% FRL).
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 36 units permitted in Walker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Walker County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.