279 Posey Dr · Carbon Hill, AL 35578

$168,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,240 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 2006 1.80 ac lot Est $155k · 9% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.4/30.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• ARV discount +3.6/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

1.5 Story Brick Home featuring 5BR/3BA, Hardwood & Title Flooring, Large Spacious Rooms, Open Floor plan, Covered Front Porch and Open back patio, all situated on approx. 1.8+/- acres.

Key facts

• 1.8 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 2006

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $168k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $279 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (4.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (4.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#208 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Walker County (rural): math 13% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #89 of 129 in AL (top 69%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Carbon Hill Elementaryjunior High School (math 13% / reading 31%, grade F, #442 of 627 statewide, top 72%, 492 students, 70% FRL); Carbon Hill High School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #220 of 305 statewide, top 77%, 359 students, 66% FRL).
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 36 units permitted in Walker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Walker County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,376 (4.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.12%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $154,560
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
209 Posey Dr	0.06mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,333 (+4%)	9mo	$160,000	$69	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-9,539
• Equity at exit: $25,049

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $14,238
• Equity at exit: $14,526

Cash invested: $47,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35578

• Home prices YoY: -12.1%
• Active inventory: 29
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,604 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$881
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $444/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $279

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,251

Max offer price $168,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,000
• Closing costs: $5,040
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-03-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-18
   listed $168,000 Active
3. 2022-08-09
   soldstatus $175,000
4. 2022-08-05
   soldstatus $175,000 Closed 190-char remark

   Show marketing remark (190 chars)

   1.5 Story Brick Home featuring 5BR/3BA, Hardwood & Title Flooring, Large Spacious Rooms, Open Floor plan, Covered Front Porch and Open back patio, all situated on approx. 1.8+/- acres.

5. 2022-06-29
   status Pending 190-char remark

   Show marketing remark (190 chars)

   1.5 Story Brick Home featuring 5BR/3BA, Hardwood & Title Flooring, Large Spacious Rooms, Open Floor plan, Covered Front Porch and Open back patio, all situated on approx. 1.8+/- acres.

6. 2022-06-28
   listed Active Under Contract 190-char remark

   Show marketing remark (190 chars)

   1.5 Story Brick Home featuring 5BR/3BA, Hardwood & Title Flooring, Large Spacious Rooms, Open Floor plan, Covered Front Porch and Open back patio, all situated on approx. 1.8+/- acres.

7. 2022-06-08
   soldstatus $185,593

   Show marketing remark (190 chars)

   1.5 Story Brick Home featuring 5BR/3BA, Hardwood & Title Flooring, Large Spacious Rooms, Open Floor plan, Covered Front Porch and Open back patio, all situated on approx. 1.8+/- acres.

8. 2022-06-08
   listed $154,950 190-char remark

   Show marketing remark (190 chars)

   1.5 Story Brick Home featuring 5BR/3BA, Hardwood & Title Flooring, Large Spacious Rooms, Open Floor plan, Covered Front Porch and Open back patio, all situated on approx. 1.8+/- acres.

9. 2016-08-12
   soldstatus $125,000 207-char remark

   Show marketing remark (207 chars)

   Newer 2 Story Full Brick Home, Lovely Open Concept, 3 Bedroom, 3 Bath, Office, Large Loft Could Be Extra Sleeping Area Or Playroom/TV Room, 1 Car Attached Carport & 1 Car Attached Garage. On 2.2 Acres.

10. 2016-04-26
    listed $129,000 207-char remark

    Show marketing remark (207 chars)

    Newer 2 Story Full Brick Home, Lovely Open Concept, 3 Bedroom, 3 Bath, Office, Large Loft Could Be Extra Sleeping Area Or Playroom/TV Room, 1 Car Attached Carport & 1 Car Attached Garage. On 2.2 Acres.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $444 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $689 · $57/mo
• Expected delta: +$245/yr (+$20/mo · 55.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,245
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,411
• − Property taxes: −$444
• − Insurance: −$840
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,540
• − Management: −$1,540
• − Depreciation: −$4,887
• Taxable income: $584
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$140
• After-tax cash flow: $3,207/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Walker County
• NCES district ID: 0103450
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $36,664
• Composite: 21.51/100
• National rank: #8321
• State rank: #89 of 129 in AL

Livability — Carbon Hill

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #208
• US rank: #16127

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,791

Population outlook (Walker County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 61,037 people
• By 2030: 58,391 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 53,080 · -13.0%
• By 2050: 48,031 · -21.3%
• By 2075: 37,799 · -38.1%
• By 2100: 29,001 · -52.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Iranian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Walker

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+71.8) · D 13.8% · R 85.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.4pp toward R · 2008: -46.4pp · 2024: -71.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+71.8 2020: R+67.9 2016: R+67.4 2012: R+52.9 2008: R+46.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -19.67%
• Current HPI: 143.3678
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+30.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Pending — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-02-18 Listed $168,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2022-08-09 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records
• 2022-08-05 Sold (MLS) $175,000 Walker County Area MLS
• 2022-06-29 Pending — Walker County Area MLS
• 2022-06-28 Listed — Walker County Area MLS
• 2022-06-08 Sold (Public Records) $185,593 Public Records
• 2022-06-08 Listed $154,950 Walker County Area MLS
• 2016-08-12 Sold (MLS) $125,000 Walker County Area MLS
• 2016-04-26 Listed $129,000 Walker County Area MLS

Property tax history

-5.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $444 · -2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.