295 Westcott Dr

Roche Harbor, WA 98250

$945,000B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,690 sqft · Built 2023 · SingleFamily · Active · 95 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $25,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,956
• Tax + insurance: −$896
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,250
• Net cashflow: $13,898/mo
• Annual: $166,777/yr
• Cap rate: 23.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 63.03%
• DSCR: 3.80
• 1% rule: 2.65%
• Cash to close: $264,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $945k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $14k ($167k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($25k rent vs $945k).
• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($860k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $860k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $28k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• San Juan Island School District (rural): math 61% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #36 of 291 in WA (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 165 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 99 units permitted in San Juan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Juan County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $945k implies a 1717% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $265k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 23.9% vs local median 0.5% in Roche Harbor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.