295 Westcott Dr · Roche Harbor, WA 98250

$945,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,690 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 95 Days on market

Built 2023 0.45 ac lot $559/sqft · 12% below area Est $1076k · 12% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Stunning newer home offers modern comfort in one of San Juan Island’s desirable locations on scenic Westcott Bay. Built in December 2023, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath residence is just minutes from Roche Harbor Resort’s dining, marina, and amenities. Step inside to vaulted ceilings, an airy open floor plan, and abundant natural light. The inviting living area features a cozy gas fireplace, ideal for cool winter evenings. The spacious kitchen flows seamlessly into the main living and dining areas, making entertaining effortless. Contemporary finishes shine throughout, including sleek quartz countertops, beautiful plank flooring, and thoughtfully designed modern interiors that feel both

Key facts

• Cozy gas fireplace
• Spacious kitchen
• 0.45 acre lot

Tags

• COZY GAS FIREPLACE
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• SLEEK QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• BEAUTIFUL PLANK FLOORING
• WHOLE-HOUSE GENERATOR
• PARTIALLY COVERED BACK DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $945k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $14k ($167k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($25k rent vs $945k).
• Recommended offer: $860k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.9% vs local median 0.5% in Roche Harbor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• San Juan Island School District (rural): math 61% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #36 of 291 in WA (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 165 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 99 units permitted in San Juan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $28k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Juan County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $265k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($860k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $945k implies a 1717% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $859,950 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 63.03%
• DSCR: 3.80
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,076,276
• List price: $945,000
• Delta: -12.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
425 Westcott Dr	0.15mi	2/3.0 (-1)	1,480 (-12%)	22mo	$875,000	$591	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 62.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.77×
• Total profit: $732,006
• Equity at exit: $140,903

10-year hold

• IRR: 66.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.72×
• Total profit: $1,777,063
• Equity at exit: $81,706

Cash invested: $264,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98250

• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $25,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,956
• Tax from tax record: −$502 /mo · $6,030/yr
• Insurance: −$394
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,250
• Net cashflow: $13,898

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,407

Max offer price $945,000

Occupancy floor 39%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $14,433	-5% $14,166	+0% $13,898	+5% $13,631	+10% $13,363
Rent	-10% $11,923	-5% $12,911	+0% $13,898	+5% $14,886	+10% $15,873
Rate	-1.0pp $14,374	-0.5pp $14,138	base $13,898	+0.5pp $13,653	+1.0pp $13,404

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $236,250
• Closing costs: $28,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
25 Cobblestone Ln Friday Harbor, WA	3.0	3.5	1820	$25,000	$13.74	44d	1	0.78mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $945,000 Active 95 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $945,000 Active 93 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $945,000 Active 92 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $945,000 Active 91 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $945,000 Active 90 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $945,000 Active 89 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $945,000 Active 88 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $945,000 Active 87 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $945,000 Active 84 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $945,000 Active 83 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $945,000 Active 82 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $945,000 Active 80 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $945,000 Active 78 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $945,000 Active 77 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $945,000 Active 76 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $945,000 Active 75 DOM
17. 2026-04-17
    price $945,000
18. 2026-03-17
    listed $979,000 Active
19. 1999-09-03
    soldstatus $52,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,030 · $502/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,261 · $772/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,231/yr (+$269/mo · 53.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥78°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $300,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$52,935
• − Property taxes: −$6,030
• − Insurance: −$4,725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$24,000
• − Management: −$24,000
• − Depreciation: −$27,491
• Taxable income: $160,820
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$38,597
• After-tax cash flow: $128,180/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Juan Island School District
• NCES district ID: 5307650
• Math proficiency: 61% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $58,476
• Composite: 56.64/100
• National rank: #2434
• State rank: #36 of 291 in WA

Livability — Roche Harbor

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Roche Harbor, WA
• Population (ZIP): 9,127

Population outlook (San Juan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,439 people
• By 2030: 17,871 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 18,236 · +4.6%
• By 2050: 18,468 · +5.9%
• By 2075: 19,749 · +13.2%
• By 2100: 20,348 · +16.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Portuguese 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Juan

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+51.4) · D 73.7% · R 22.3% · Other 3.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.5pp toward D · 2008: 41.9pp · 2024: 51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+51.4 2020: D+50.5 2016: D+41.6 2012: D+37.5 2008: D+41.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.89%
• Current HPI: 187.6787
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+1717.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $945,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-17 Listed $979,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-09-03 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $6,030 · +28.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.