20233 S 85th St E

Webbers Falls, OK 74470

$50,000B+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Built 1969 · Manufactured · Pending · 51 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $812/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax + insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$170
• Net cashflow: $296/mo
• Annual: $3,548/yr
• Cap rate: 13.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.34%
• DSCR: 2.13
• 1% rule: 1.62%
• Cash to close: $14,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $296 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($812 rent vs $50k).
• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $48k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($346 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (5.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#269 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Warner (rural): math 40% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #24 of 270 in OK (top 9%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Warner Es (math 39% / reading 36%, grade F, #127 of 845 statewide, top 15%, 600 students, 0% FRL); Warner Hs (math 44% / reading 44%, grade F, #15 of 447 statewide, top 4%, 214 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 63% district-wide (63 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 58 units permitted in Muskogee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Muskogee County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.