54194 W Organ Pipe Rd

Ak-Chin Village, AZ 85139

$185,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built 1997 · Manufactured · Active · 142 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,715/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax + insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $270/mo
• Annual: $3,238/yr
• Cap rate: 8.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.25%
• DSCR: 1.28
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $51,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $270 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (7.3% below list).
• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $163k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Casa Grande Union High School District (4453) (suburban): math 14% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #193 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Vista Grande High School (math 10% / reading 16%, grade F, #279 of 381 statewide, top 73%, 1,790 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 415 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 13 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask is 825% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.2% in Ak-Chin Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.