54194 W Organ Pipe Rd · Ak-Chin Village, AZ 85139

$185,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 142 Days on market

Built 1997 3.35 ac lot Est $198k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.3/30.0
• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Mi Lindo Sueño! This 3+ acre ranch sits at the peaceful outskirts of Maricopa, offering beautiful mountain views and serene country living while remaining conveniently close to city amenities. The manufactured home features a semi-open floor plan with vaulted ceilings that create a bright, airy atmosphere, a spacious kitchen with abundant storage & appliances, and a primary bedroom with a bathroom. Step out to the back porch to an ideal spot to relax and enjoy spectacular sunsets. The expansive land includes multiple storage sheds and ample space for horses, livestock, and your vision of ranch life. Whether you're seeking a peaceful retreat or room to grow, this prop

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Space for horses
• Back porch

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• BACK PORCH
• MULTIPLE STORAGE SHEDS
• SPACE FOR HORSES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: RV gate; Separate storage area
• Utilities: Septic (in and connected); Water hauled
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Fee simple ownership; Mountain views; Dirt road surface
• Construction: Wood siding and wood frame construction; Painted exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Chain-link and wire fencing; Storage area; Horses allowed; Natural desert front and back; Dirt front and back; County-maintained road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Up to 3 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Eat-in kitchen; No interior steps; Vaulted ceilings; Full bathroom in master bedroom; Dual-pane windows; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $270 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (7.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $163k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.2% in Ak-Chin Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Casa Grande Union High School District (4453) (suburban): math 14% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #193 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Vista Grande High School (math 10% / reading 16%, grade F, #279 of 381 statewide, top 73%, 1,790 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 415 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 13 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask is 825% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.25%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $197,760
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
54084 W Badger Rd	0.36mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,057 (+10%)	22mo	$217,500	$206	43
53129 W Badger Rd	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	910 (-5%)	15mo	$140,000	$154	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-17,913
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-13,274
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85139

• Home prices YoY: -17.4%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 415
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,715 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $456/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $270

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,374

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 142 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 141 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 140 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 139 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 137 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 136 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 133 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,000 Active 132 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $185,000 Active 131 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $185,000 Active 129 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $185,000 Active 128 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 127 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 126 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 125 DOM
15. 2026-04-03
    price $185,000
16. 2026-03-19
    price $189,000
17. 2026-03-03
    price $194,500
18. 2026-02-20
    price $195,000
19. 2026-01-26
    price $200,000
20. 2026-01-26
    listed $20,000 Active
21. 2025-05-13
    historical
22. 2025-01-28
    price $190,000
23. 2025-01-19
    status Active
24. 2025-01-03
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
25. 2024-12-31
    status Active
26. 2024-12-27
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
27. 2024-11-13
    listed $200,000 Active
28. 2024-09-10
    historical
29. 2024-07-31
    price $208,000
30. 2024-07-02
    listed $215,000 Active
31. 2024-07-02
    historical
32. 2024-06-20
    price $219,900
33. 2024-06-01
    listed $225,000 Active
34. 2024-04-09
    historical
35. 2024-01-01
    listed $250,000 Active
36. 2023-05-11
    soldstatus $195,000 Closed
37. 2023-05-11
    soldstatus $190,000
38. 2023-05-03
    status Pending
39. 2023-02-09
    listed $195,000 Active
40. 2022-12-30
    historical
41. 2022-07-17
    price $204,900
42. 2022-07-06
    status Active
43. 2022-07-06
    status Pending
44. 2022-06-04
    listed $215,000 Active
45. 2021-10-18
    historical
46. 2021-09-13
    listed $199,900 Active
47. 2004-04-30
    historical
48. 2003-10-21
    listed $58,000
49. 2003-08-01
    historical
50. 2003-02-28
    listed $58,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $456 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,221 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: +$765/yr (+$64/mo · 167.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,583
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$456
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,647
• − Management: −$1,647
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable income: $164
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$39
• After-tax cash flow: $3,198/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Casa Grande Union High School District (4453)
• NCES district ID: 0401740
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $45,373
• Composite: 15.38/100
• National rank: #9319
• State rank: #193 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Ak-Chin Village

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 20,784
• Household income: $86,894
• Rent vs Own: 17.2% rent · 82.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 272.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 13% Black 9% Native American 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 17% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.22%
• Current HPI: 313.8539
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.10%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+219.0% since first listed

36 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $185,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $189,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $194,500 ARMLS
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $195,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-26 Price Changed $200,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-26 Listed $20,000 ARMLS
• 2025-05-13 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-01-28 Price Changed $190,000 ARMLS
• 2025-01-19 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2025-01-03 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2024-12-31 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2024-12-27 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2024-11-13 Listed $200,000 ARMLS
• 2024-09-10 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-07-31 Price Changed $208,000 ARMLS
• 2024-07-02 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-07-02 Listed $215,000 ARMLS
• 2024-06-20 Price Changed $219,900 ARMLS
• 2024-06-01 Listed $225,000 ARMLS
• 2024-04-09 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-01-01 Listed $250,000 ARMLS
• 2023-05-11 Sold (Public Records) $190,000 Public Records
• 2023-05-11 Sold (MLS) $195,000 ARMLS
• 2023-05-03 Pending — ARMLS
• 2023-02-09 Listed $195,000 ARMLS
• 2022-12-30 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2022-07-17 Price Changed $204,900 ARMLS
• 2022-07-06 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2022-07-06 Pending — ARMLS
• 2022-06-04 Listed $215,000 ARMLS
• 2021-10-18 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2021-09-13 Listed $199,900 ARMLS
• 2004-04-30 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2003-10-21 Listed $58,000 ARMLS
• 2003-08-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2003-02-28 Listed $58,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

-3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $456 · +13.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.