3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,216 sqft ·
Built 2024
· Manufactured
· Active
· 845 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,678/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$477
Tax + insurance
−$152
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$352
Net cashflow
$697/mo
Annual
$8,370/yr
Cap rate
15.50%
Cash-on-cash
32.89%
DSCR
2.46
1% rule
1.85%
Cash to close
$25,452
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $91k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $697 ($8k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $91k).
It's been on market 845 days — a 12% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $80k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $628 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Chet'S Creek Elementary School (math 81% / reading 75%, grade A, #149 of 2,144 statewide, top 8%, 1,095 students, 36% FRL); Duncan U. Fletcher Middle School (math 69% / reading 64%, grade A-, #84 of 571 statewide, top 16%, 1,140 students, 33% FRL); Sandalwood High School (math 53% / reading 46%, grade D, #179 of 667 statewide, top 29%, 2,771 students, 42% FRL).
Zoned-school proficiency averages 65% at this address vs 46% district-wide (+19 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Duval average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 441 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 68d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 15.5% vs local median 4.0% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($118k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 845 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-X8H1MPEXAERMD9
· Data 1 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29