21 Stone Arabia St

Nelliston, NY 13339

$59,900B+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,148 sqft · Built 1860 · SingleFamily · Pending · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,160/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$314
• Tax + insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$244
• Net cashflow: $352/mo
• Annual: $4,225/yr
• Cap rate: 13.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.19%
• DSCR: 2.12
• 1% rule: 1.94%
• Cash to close: $16,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $60k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $352 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $59k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($414 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (5.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,129 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Fort Plain Central School District (rural): math 43% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #401 of 590 in NY (top 68%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.5% of price; built in 1860 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 210 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (168 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $7k; list at $60k implies a 756% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (5.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1860 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.