21 Stone Arabia St · Nelliston, NY 13339

$59,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,148 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1860 0.36 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Being sold as is. Handyman special. Nice residential location. Poor Condition

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Upstairs sheetrocked
• New vinyl siding

Tags

• NEW VINYL SIDING
• NEW VINYL REPLACEMENT WINDOWS
• METAL ROOF
• ELECTRICAL SYSTEM ROUGHED IN
• UPSTAIRS SHEETROCKED
• SOME PLUMBING COMPLETED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $352 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $59k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,129 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Fort Plain Central School District (rural): math 43% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #401 of 590 in NY (top 68%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 210 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (168 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($414 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (5.2% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $7k; list at $60k implies a 756% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.5% of price; built in 1860 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $59,001 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1860 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.94% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.19%
• DSCR: 2.12
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $182,532
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14 W Main St	0.07mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,024 (-11%)	7mo	$163,255	$159	68
47 E Main St	0.40mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,127 (-2%)	20mo	$95,000	$84	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.24% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.22×
• Total profit: $37,158
• Equity at exit: $34,812

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.53×
• Total profit: $92,790
• Equity at exit: $60,811

Cash invested: $16,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13339

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,160 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$314
• Tax from tax record: −$225 /mo · $2,704/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$244
• Net cashflow: $352

Break-even live

Break-even rent $714

Max offer price $59,900

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $544	-5% $369	+0% $352	+5% $335	+10% $318
Rent	-10% $260	-5% $306	+0% $352	+5% $398	+10% $444
Rate	-1.0pp $382	-0.5pp $367	base $352	+0.5pp $337	+1.0pp $321

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,975
• Closing costs: $1,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-03-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-25
   listed $59,900 Active
3. 2020-09-21
   soldstatus $7,000
4. 2009-05-21
   soldstatus $18,900
5. 2009-05-20
   soldstatus $18,900 79-char remark

   Show marketing remark (79 chars)

   Being sold as is. Handyman special. Nice residential location. Poor Condition

6. 2009-03-18
   historical 79-char remark

   Show marketing remark (79 chars)

   Being sold as is. Handyman special. Nice residential location. Poor Condition

7. 2008-09-18
   listed $18,900 79-char remark

   Show marketing remark (79 chars)

   Being sold as is. Handyman special. Nice residential location. Poor Condition

8. 1995-08-01
   soldstatus $14,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,704 · $225/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,704 · $225/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,922
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,355
• − Property taxes: −$2,704
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,114
• − Management: −$1,114
• − Depreciation: −$1,743
• Taxable income: $3,593
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$862
• After-tax cash flow: $3,363/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Plain Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3611370
• Math proficiency: 43% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 18.00%
• Median HH income: $41,754
• Composite: 41.94/100
• National rank: #3352
• State rank: #401 of 590 in NY

Livability — Nelliston

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1129
• US rank: #23294

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing C Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nelliston, NY
• City population: 575
• Population (ZIP): 6,131

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,683 people
• By 2030: 47,785 · -1.8%
• By 2040: 45,492 · -6.6%
• By 2050: 43,161 · -11.3%
• By 2075: 38,134 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 32,337 · -33.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 10% Lithuanian 9% Romanian 5%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.7) · D 35.6% · R 64.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: -8.1pp · 2024: -28.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.7 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+26.5 2012: R+4.4 2008: R+8.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.24%
• Current HPI: 320.8989
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+313.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Pending — Global MLS
• 2026-02-25 Listed $59,900 Global MLS
• 2020-09-21 Sold (Public Records) $7,000 Public Records
• 2009-05-21 Sold (Public Records) $18,900 Public Records
• 2009-05-20 Sold (MLS) $18,900 Global MLS
• 2009-03-18 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2008-09-18 Listed $18,900 Global MLS
• 1995-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $14,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,704 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.