3400 Fir Ct

Hornbrook, CA 96044

$40,000B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Active · 101 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,337/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax + insurance: −$43
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $804/mo
• Annual: $9,644/yr
• Cap rate: 30.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 86.11%
• DSCR: 4.83
• 1% rule: 3.34%
• Cash to close: $11,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $804 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($36k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $36k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $83 of equity ($277 loan paydown + $-194 appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 47/100 on livability (#1,256 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Yreka Union High (town): math 25% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #630 of 1,400 in CA (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 87 active listings in the ZIP; 50 units permitted in Siskiyou County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Siskiyou County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $40k implies a 152% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 9→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.