3400 Fir Ct · Hornbrook, CA 96044

$40,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Manufactured · 101 Days on market

1.04 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0

Listing remarks

Mobile Home is a tear down, has no Value, Well, septic and power at property, condition unknown 1.04 Acres.

Key facts

• 1.04 acre lot
• Listed 100 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: Ager Rd to Fir St east to Fir Ct

Exterior

• Home design: Single-story manufactured home; Zoned R-R-B
• Construction: Composition roof; Rolled/Hot Mop roof
• Exterior features: Level lot

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $804 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $36k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 47/100 on livability (#1,256 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Yreka Union High (town): math 25% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #630 of 1,400 in CA (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 87 active listings in the ZIP; 50 units permitted in Siskiyou County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $83 of equity ($277 loan paydown + $-194 appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Siskiyou County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($36k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $40k implies a 152% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 9→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $36,400 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 30.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 86.11%
• DSCR: 4.83
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $246,400
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2916 Cougar St	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,538 (+10%)	5mo	$270,000	$176	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.48% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 88.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.39×
• Total profit: $49,118
• Equity at exit: $10,655

10-year hold

• IRR: 89.8%
• Equity multiple: 11.09×
• Total profit: $112,954
• Equity at exit: $12,065

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96044

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 87
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,337 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $318/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $804

Break-even live

Break-even rent $320

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 35%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $40,000 Active 101 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $40,000 Active 100 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $40,000 Active 99 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $40,000 Active 98 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $40,000 Active 97 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $40,000 Active 95 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $40,000 Active 94 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $40,000 Active 91 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $40,000 Active 90 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $40,000 Active 89 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $40,000 Active 88 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $40,000 Active 85 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $40,000 Active 84 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $40,000 Active 83 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $40,000 Active 82 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $40,000 Active 81 DOM
17. 2026-03-10
    listed $40,000 Active
18. 1992-11-05
    soldstatus $15,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $318 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $318 · $26/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 9 d/yr ≥97°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 32 unhealthy d/yr today · 34 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,049
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$318
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,284
• − Management: −$1,284
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $9,559
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,294
• After-tax cash flow: $7,350/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Yreka Union High
• NCES district ID: 0643410
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $34,206
• Composite: 39.28/100
• National rank: #8184
• State rank: #630 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Hornbrook

• Score: 47/100
• State rank: #1256
• US rank: #26373

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,181

Population outlook (Siskiyou County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,337 people
• By 2030: 36,930 · -6.1%
• By 2040: 32,367 · -17.7%
• By 2050: 29,030 · -26.2%
• By 2075: 23,534 · -40.2%
• By 2100: 19,312 · -50.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Two or more races 24% Hispanic / Latino 10% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Russian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Siskiyou

• 2024 margin: R (+19.2) · D 38.8% · R 58.0% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.8pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -19.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.2 2020: R+15.8 2016: R+20.7 2012: R+15.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.48%
• Current HPI: 175.8263
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+151.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-10 Listed $40,000 SMLS
• 1992-11-05 Sold (Public Records) $15,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $318 · -15.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.