8811 BERGENLINE Ave #25

Fairview, NJ 07047

$219,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 700 sqft · Built — · Condo · Under Contract · 71 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,625/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax + insurance: −$365
• HOA: −$630
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$551
• Net cashflow: $-69/mo
• Annual: $-833/yr
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.36%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 1.20%
• Cash to close: $61,320

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $219k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-69 ($-833/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $209k (4.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $219k).
• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($206k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $206k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#174 in NJ, #4,548 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute C-, schools D-, cost of living F.
• North Bergen School District (suburban): math 12% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #393 of 472 in NJ (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 24% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 209 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,310 units permitted in Hudson County in 2024 (4,154 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hudson County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.5% in Fairview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?