1287 County Road 402

Flatonia, TX 78941

$287,000D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,493 sqft · Built 2025 · Manufactured · Pending · 304 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,197/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,505
• Tax + insurance: −$478
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$461
• Net cashflow: $-248/mo
• Annual: $-2,973/yr
• Cap rate: 5.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.70%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $80,360

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $287k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-248 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $251k (12.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (23.4% below list).
• It's been on market 304 days — a 12% lower offer ($253k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $220k (23.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (2.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#599 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Waelder ISD (rural): math 20% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #1,095 of 1,141 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 80 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Gonzales County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Gonzales County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.1% in Flatonia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 304 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.