1287 County Road 402 · Flatonia, TX 78941

$287,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,493 sqft · Manufactured · 304 Days on market

Built 2025 3.36 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 1287 CR 402 in Flatonia, Texas — a beautifully built new construction home nestled on 3.36 acres in scenic Gonzales County! This thoughtfully designed 4-bedroom, 2-bath residence offers the perfect blend of rural tranquility and modern style. Step inside to discover a bright and open floor plan with luxury finishes, a spacious living area, and a well-appointed kitchen featuring stainless steel appliances and ample cabinet space. The split-bedroom layout ensures privacy, with a large primary suite boasting a walk-in closet and a stylish ensuite bathroom. Outside, enjoy the peaceful surroundings and endless possibilities the land provides — ideal for gardening, recreati

Key facts

• Split-bedroom layout
• New construction
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• 3.36 ACRES
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• AMPLE CABINET SPACE
• SPLIT-BEDROOM LAYOUT
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $287k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-248 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $251k (12.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (23.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (23.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.1% in Flatonia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#599 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Waelder ISD (rural): math 20% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #1,095 of 1,141 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 80 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Gonzales County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (2.8% local appreciation)).
• Gonzales County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 304 days — a 12% lower offer ($253k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $219,702 (23.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 304 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.70%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.81% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $16,006
• Equity at exit: $126,046

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.03×
• Total profit: $82,716
• Equity at exit: $191,951

Cash invested: $80,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78941

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 80
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,197 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,505
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$359 /mo · $4,305/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$461
• Net cashflow: $-248

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,511

Max offer price $251,151

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-49	-5% $-149	+0% $-248	+5% $-347	+10% $-446
Rent	-10% $-421	-5% $-335	+0% $-248	+5% $-161	+10% $-74
Rate	-1.0pp $-103	-0.5pp $-175	base $-248	+0.5pp $-322	+1.0pp $-398

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,750
• Closing costs: $8,610
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-19
   price $287,000
3. 2025-11-18
   price $292,000
4. 2025-06-16
   price $297,000
5. 2025-06-16
   listed $29,700 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,364
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,076
• − Property taxes: −$4,305
• − Insurance: −$1,435
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,109
• − Management: −$2,109
• − Depreciation: −$8,349
• Taxable loss: −$8,020
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,925
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,048/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waelder ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844310
• Math proficiency: 20% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $40,836
• Composite: 22.24/100
• National rank: #13507
• State rank: #1095 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Flatonia

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #599
• US rank: #11419

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,334

Population outlook (Gonzales County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,246 people
• By 2030: 23,060 · +3.7%
• By 2040: 24,661 · +10.9%
• By 2050: 26,046 · +17.1%
• By 2075: 29,289 · +31.7%
• By 2100: 30,112 · +35.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 43%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 32% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gonzales

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.8) · D 22.3% · R 77.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.5pp toward R · 2008: -30.4pp · 2024: -54.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.8 2020: R+48.1 2016: R+47.8 2012: R+40.4 2008: R+30.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.81%
• Current HPI: 228.938
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+866.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Pending — CTXMLS
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $287,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $292,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-06-16 Price Changed $297,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-06-16 Listed $29,700 CTXMLS