21016 NW 39th Ave

Miami Gardens, FL 33055

$375,000D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,231 sqft · Built 1972 · Townhouse · Pending · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,541/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax + insurance: −$230
• HOA: −$35
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$744
• Net cashflow: $565/mo
• Annual: $6,785/yr
• Cap rate: 8.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.46%
• DSCR: 1.29
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $105,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $375k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $565 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $354k (5.6% below list).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $354k (5.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#338 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime D-, amenities F.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Barbara Hawkins Elementary School (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,969 of 2,144 statewide, top 94%, 241 students, 80% FRL); Carol City Middle School (math 32% / reading 34%, grade F, #437 of 571 statewide, top 77%, 453 students, 76% FRL); Miami Carol City Senior High (math 8% / reading 16%, grade F, #622 of 667 statewide, top 93%, 804 students, 80% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-26 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Miami-Dade average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.0%/yr); 103 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $375k implies a 436% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.1% in Miami Gardens — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,541/mo this rent would consume 68% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 1006% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.