21016 NW 39th Ave · Miami Gardens, FL 33055

$375,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,231 sqft · Townhouse public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1972 Est $359k · at est. $35/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.5/30.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• ARV discount +5.6/15.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

CORNER TOWNHOUSE 4 BED 2 BATHS plenty of parking NEW ROOF NEW A/C NEW KITCHEN with a lot of potential to build your dream house, 5 MIN AWAY FROM HARD ROCK STADIUM 3 MIN FROM TURNPIKE 3 MIN FROM MIRAMAR, close to everything Restaurants, Shopping, Highway, It's great for your parties with friends & family. The location is perfect, 15 min away from major malls like Aventura & Pembroke lakes mall. Close to Hard Rock stadium and Opa Locka Hialeah flea market. Same Owner living here 20 years bringing love and dedication to this house. NO RENTAL RESTRICTIONS, CAN HELP WITH CLOSING COST, PERFECT FOR YOU AND YOUR FAMILY.

Key facts

• New kitchen
• 3 min from miramar
• 3 min from turnpike

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW A/C
• NEW KITCHEN
• PLENTY OF PARKING
• 3 MIN FROM TURNPIKE
• 3 MIN FROM MIRAMAR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $565 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $354k (5.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $354k (5.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.1% in Miami Gardens — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#338 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime D-, amenities F.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Barbara Hawkins Elementary School (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,969 of 2,144 statewide, top 94%, 241 students, 80% FRL); Carol City Middle School (math 32% / reading 34%, grade F, #437 of 571 statewide, top 77%, 453 students, 76% FRL); Miami Carol City Senior High (math 8% / reading 16%, grade F, #622 of 667 statewide, top 93%, 804 students, 80% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-26 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Miami-Dade average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.0%/yr); 103 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,541/mo this rent would consume 68% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 1006% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $375k implies a 436% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $354,089 (5.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.46%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $359,452
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21422 NW 40th Cir Ct	0.22mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,162 (-6%)	2mo	$339,000	$292	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-35,301
• Equity at exit: $55,914

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-25,154
• Equity at exit: $32,423

Cash invested: $105,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33055

• Rents YoY: -5.0%
• Active inventory: 103
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,541 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $889/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$35
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$744
• Net cashflow: $565

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,825

Max offer price $375,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,750
• Closing costs: $11,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9680 W Elm Ln Miramar, FL	4.0	2.0	1218	$3,700	$3.04	24d	1	0.77mi
9761 W Heather Ln Miramar, FL	3.0	2.0	971	$2,550	$2.63	11d	1	0.90mi
9761 W Heather Ln Miramar, FL	3.0	2.0	971	$2,550	$2.63	8d	1	0.90mi
8660 Beekman Dr Miramar, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$3,200	$2.29	20d	1	1.21mi
8880 SW 23rd St Miramar, FL	3.0	2.0	1359	$3,650	$2.69	24d	1	1.46mi
8375 SW 29th St Miramar, FL	3.0	2.5	1450	$2,850	$1.97	19d	1	1.48mi
2400 SW 87th Way Miramar, FL	3.0	2.5	1430	$3,100	$2.17	24d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $35 · $420/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-03-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-01
   listed $375,000 Active
3. 2004-07-14
   soldstatus $70,000
4. 1974-03-01
   soldstatus $26,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $889 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,112 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,223/yr (+$185/mo · 249.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,491
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,006
• − Property taxes: −$889
• − Insurance: −$1,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,399
• − Management: −$3,399
• − HOA: −$420
• − Depreciation: −$10,909
• Taxable income: $593
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$142
• After-tax cash flow: $6,642/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Miami-Dade
• NCES district ID: 1200390
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,928
• Composite: 41.76/100
• National rank: #3397
• State rank: #40 of 73 in FL

Livability — Miami Gardens

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #338
• US rank: #5854

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living B+ Crime D- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Miami Gardens, FL
• County: Miami-Dade County · 2,697,751 people
• City population: 81,592
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 37,659
• Household income: $62,286
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1006.0

Population outlook (Miami-Dade County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,126,439 people
• By 2030: 3,325,765 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 3,697,561 · +18.3%
• By 2050: 4,012,134 · +28.3%
• By 2075: 4,605,612 · +47.3%
• By 2100: 4,866,598 · +55.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 72% Two or more races 38% Black 23% White 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 44% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 0%
• Foreign-born: 56% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 30% English-only · Spanish 68% Chinese 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Miami-Dade

• 2024 margin: R (+11.4) · D 43.9% · R 55.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.6pp toward R · 2008: 16.1pp · 2024: -11.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.4 2020: D+7.3 2016: D+29.6 2012: D+23.7 2008: D+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -327.03%
• Current HPI: 527.6639
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.00%
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1342.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Pending — Beaches MLS
• 2026-02-01 Listed $375,000 Beaches MLS
• 2004-07-14 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 1974-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $26,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $889 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.