183 Lagonita Ln

Big Bear Lake, CA 92315

$30,000D

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Built 1970 · Timeshare · Active · 237 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,927/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax + insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $1,315/mo
• Annual: $15,778/yr
• Cap rate: 58.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 187.84%
• DSCR: 9.36
• 1% rule: 6.42%
• Cash to close: $8,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath timeshare listed at $30k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $30k).
• It's been on market 237 days — a 12% lower offer ($26k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $26k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $900 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#420 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+; Watch: crime C-, housing C-, health & safety D+.
• Bear Valley Unified (town): math 26% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #289 of 517 in CA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Big Bear Middle (math 20% / reading 37%, grade F, #231 of 498 statewide, top 47%, 503 students, 68% FRL); Big Bear High (math 37% / reading 67%, grade D+, #296 of 1,170 statewide, top 27%, 624 students, 69% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.5%/yr); 540 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 17 sale attempts since 30y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $2k; list at $30k implies a 1401% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 58.9% vs local median 2.4% in Big Bear Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 237 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?