183 Lagonita Ln · Big Bear Lake, CA 92315

$30,000

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Timeshare · 237 Days on market

Built 1970 $30/sqft · 94% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Get away from the hustle and bustle for a while. Enjoy Fractional Interest Living. This Lake Front Lodge is on Big Bear Lake. This 2 bed 3 bath unit has a lake view and sleeps 10. It has a fireplace with all utensils and linens, coffee maker, towels. Maid service. Lodge has indoor heated pool, hot tub outside and inside, rec. room, pool tables, fitness center, boat docks. Lots of activities. Close to Big Bear downtown for dining, shopping and entertainment. Near Snow Summit.

Key facts

• Hot tub inside
• Fitness center
• Hot tub outside

Tags

• LAKE FRONT LODGE
• INDOOR HEATED POOL
• HOT TUB OUTSIDE
• HOT TUB INSIDE
• REC ROOM
• FITNESS CENTER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath timeshare listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $26k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 58.9% vs local median 2.4% in Big Bear Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#420 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+; Watch: crime C-, housing C-, health & safety D+.
• Bear Valley Unified (town): math 26% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #289 of 517 in CA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Big Bear Middle (math 20% / reading 37%, grade F, #231 of 498 statewide, top 47%, 503 students, 68% FRL); Big Bear High (math 37% / reading 67%, grade D+, #296 of 1,170 statewide, top 27%, 624 students, 69% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.5%/yr); 540 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $900 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 237 days — a 12% lower offer ($26k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 17 sale attempts since 30y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $2k; list at $30k implies a 1401% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $26,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 237 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 6.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 58.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 187.84%
• DSCR: 9.36
• GRM: 1.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $544,237
• List price: $30,000
• Delta: -94.49%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.72×
• Total profit: $73,265
• Equity at exit: $4,473

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 18.85×
• Total profit: $149,926
• Equity at exit: $2,594

Cash invested: $8,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92315

• Rents YoY: -3.5%
• Active inventory: 540
• Price-to-rent: 1.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,927 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$38 /mo · $450/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $1,315

Break-even live

Break-even rent $262

Max offer price $30,000

Occupancy floor 27%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,336	-5% $1,325	+0% $1,315	+5% $1,304	+10% $1,294
Rent	-10% $1,163	-5% $1,239	+0% $1,315	+5% $1,391	+10% $1,467
Rate	-1.0pp $1,330	-0.5pp $1,322	base $1,315	+0.5pp $1,307	+1.0pp $1,299

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,500
• Closing costs: $900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
39873 Forest Rd Big Bear Lake, CA	2.0	1.0	1200	$2,000	$1.67	45d	1	0.39mi
40051 Forest Rd #2 Big Bear Lake, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,575	$1.97	45d	1	0.44mi
524 Wanita Ln Big Bear Lake, CA	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,800	$1.70	25d	1	0.50mi
524 Wanita Ln Big Bear Lake, CA	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,800	$1.70	6d	1	0.50mi
40409 Big Bear Blvd Unit 3 Big Bear Lake, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$2,000	$2.50	45d	1	0.79mi
40504 Big Bear Blvd Big Bear Lake, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,600	$2.29	45d	1	0.80mi
40158 Hillcrest Dr Big Bear Lake, CA	2.0	1.0	1032	$2,150	$2.08	45d	1	0.87mi
767 Cienega Rd Unit A Big Bear Lake, CA	3.0	2.0	1374	$2,500	$1.82	25d	1	1.03mi
39383 Moab Ln Big Bear Lake, CA	3.0	1.5	900	$2,100	$2.33	14d	1	1.21mi
933 Cameron Dr Big Bear Lake, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$2,500	$2.94	5d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $30,000 Active 237 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $30,000 Active 234 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $30,000 Active 233 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $30,000 Active 232 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $30,000 Active 231 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $30,000 Active 229 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $30,000 Active 228 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $30,000 Active 225 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $30,000 Active 224 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $30,000 Active 223 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $30,000 Active 220 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $30,000 Active 219 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $30,000 Active 218 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $30,000 Active 217 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $30,000 Active 216 DOM
16. 2025-10-27
    listed $30,000 Active 479-char remark

    Show marketing remark (479 chars)

    Get away from the hustle and bustle for a while. Enjoy Fractional Interest Living. This Lake Front Lodge is on Big Bear Lake. This 2 bed 3 bath unit has a lake view and sleeps 10. It has a fireplace with all utensils and linens, coffee maker, towels. Maid service. Lodge has indoor heated pool, hot tub outside and inside, rec. room, pool tables, fitness center, boat docks. Lots of activities. Close to Big Bear downtown for dining, shopping and entertainment. Near Snow Summit.

17. 2025-03-01
    historical
18. 2025-02-26
    historical
19. 2025-02-01
    historical
20. 2025-02-01
    historical
21. 2025-02-01
    historical
22. 2025-02-01
    historical
23. 2025-02-01
    historical
24. 2024-02-26
    price $19,000
25. 2024-02-26
    listed $19,000 Active
26. 2024-02-26
    listed $15,000 Active
27. 2024-02-26
    listed $19,000 Active
28. 2024-02-26
    listed $19,000 Active
29. 2024-02-26
    listed $19,000 Active
30. 2024-02-26
    listed $19,000 Active
31. 2024-02-26
    listed $19,000 Active
32. 2023-04-25
    soldstatus $1,999 Closed
33. 2023-02-03
    historical Active Under Contract
34. 2023-01-26
    price $1,999
35. 2023-01-26
    listed $999 Active
36. 2020-12-31
    soldstatus $500
37. 2020-11-14
    listed $450
38. 2019-02-19
    historical
39. 2018-02-18
    listed $5,000
40. 2010-08-09
    soldstatus $950 Closed
41. 2010-03-06
    listed $950 Active
42. 2007-09-20
    historical
43. 2007-09-19
    price
44. 2007-06-23
    historical
45. 2007-06-02
    price $13,500
46. 2007-05-25
    listed
47. 2007-04-21
    listed $14,000
48. 2006-09-20
    historical
49. 2006-04-03
    listed
50. 2005-07-27
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 9 d/yr ≥83°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 24 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,122
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,680
• − Property taxes: −$450
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,850
• − Management: −$1,850
• − Depreciation: −$873
• Taxable income: $16,269
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,905
• After-tax cash flow: $11,874/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bear Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0604230
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,222
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6588
• State rank: #289 of 517 in CA

Livability — Big Bear Lake

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #420
• US rank: #14284

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C- Employment C Housing C- Health & safety D+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Big Bear Lake, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 5,215
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 5,215
• Household income: $77,436
• Rent vs Own: 33.8% rent · 66.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 209.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 18% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -242.29%
• Current HPI: 310.1013
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.48%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+114.3% since first listed

38 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-27 Listed $30,000 CRMLS
• 2025-03-01 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-02-26 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-02-01 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-02-01 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-02-01 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-02-01 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-02-01 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-02-26 Price Changed $19,000 CRMLS
• 2024-02-26 Listed $19,000 CRMLS
• 2024-02-26 Listed $19,000 CRMLS
• 2024-02-26 Listed $19,000 CRMLS
• 2024-02-26 Listed $19,000 CRMLS
• 2024-02-26 Listed $19,000 CRMLS
• 2024-02-26 Listed $15,000 CRMLS
• 2024-02-26 Listed $19,000 CRMLS
• 2023-04-25 Sold (MLS) $1,999 MRCAOR
• 2023-02-03 Contingent — MRCAOR
• 2023-01-26 Price Changed $1,999 MRCAOR
• 2023-01-26 Listed $999 MRCAOR
• 2020-12-31 Sold (MLS) $500 MRCAOR
• 2020-11-14 Listed $450 MRCAOR
• 2019-02-19 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2018-02-18 Listed $5,000 CRMLS
• 2010-08-09 Sold (MLS) $950 CRMLS
• 2010-03-06 Listed $950 CRMLS
• 2007-09-20 Delisted — TheMLS
• 2007-09-19 Price Changed — TheMLS
• 2007-06-23 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2007-06-02 Price Changed $13,500 CRMLS
• 2007-05-25 Listed — TheMLS
• 2007-04-21 Listed $14,000 CRMLS
• 2006-09-20 Delisted — TheMLS
• 2006-04-03 Listed — TheMLS
• 2005-07-27 Delisted — TheMLS
• 2005-02-26 Listed — TheMLS
• 2001-03-04 Delisted — TheMLS
• 1996-09-04 Listed — TheMLS

Property tax history

-6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $23 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.