4 bd · 2.5 ba ·
2,080 sqft ·
Built 2024
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 134 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,357/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,206
Tax + insurance
−$735
HOA
−$48
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$495
Net cashflow
$-128/mo
Annual
$-1,532/yr
Cap rate
5.63%
Cash-on-cash
-2.38%
DSCR
0.89
1% rule
1.02%
Cash to close
$64,400
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $230k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-128 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $207k (9.8% below list).
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $230k).
It's been on market 134 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $202k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#158 in TX, #4,292 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: John & Barbara Roderick El (678 students, 52% FRL); Ouida Baley Middle (math 32% / reading 35%, grade F, #911 of 1,662 statewide, top 56%, 934 students, 43% FRL); Royse City H S (math 38% / reading 55%, grade D-, #621 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 2,526 students, 37% FRL).
Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 1884 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 73d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).
Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $29k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.2% in Royse City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 134 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-X9ADVH4H087P71
· Data 9 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29