2124 Home Park Ave

Decatur, IL 62526

$140,500D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Built 1965 · SingleFamily · Active · 222 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,386/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$737
• Tax + insurance: −$433
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$291
• Net cashflow: $-75/mo
• Annual: $-897/yr
• Cap rate: 5.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.28%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $39,340

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-75 ($-897/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $127k (9.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $139k (1.3% below list).
• It's been on market 222 days — a 12% lower offer ($124k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $124k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $971 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,076 in IL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Decatur SD 61 (urban): math 3% / reading 6% proficiency, ranked #605 of 620 in IL (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price.
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 63 units permitted in Macon County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Macon County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($49k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 222 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?