21 Blue Jay Ct

Keene, NH 03431

$145,000D+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Built 2025 · Manufactured · Pending · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,119/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax + insurance: −$191
• HOA: −$570
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$445
• Net cashflow: $153/mo
• Annual: $1,832/yr
• Cap rate: 7.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.51%
• DSCR: 1.20
• 1% rule: 1.46%
• Cash to close: $40,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $153 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#4 in NH, #192 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Keene School District (town): math 26% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #76 of 98 in NH (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fuller Elementary School (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #190 of 263 statewide, top 75%, 310 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools at 33% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 27% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 64 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 166 units permitted in Cheshire County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cheshire County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $7k; list at $145k implies a 2032% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.2% in Keene — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.