21 Blue Jay Ct · Keene, NH 03431

$145,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured public records · 5 Days on market

Built 2025 Est $103k · 40% over $570/mo HOA · 27% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully upgraded home in sought after Tanglewood Park Cooperative. Built in 2026 and thoughtfully customized from the start, this 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom home offers modern comfort, quality finishes, and truly easy living. The owner carefully selected upgrades throughout the build process, choosing higher end features and finishes wherever possible, creating a home that feels warm, inviting, and far from your typical manufactured home. Step inside and immediately appreciate the bright open concept layout, recessed lighting, tray ceiling, and attractive luxury vinyl plank flooring flowing throughout the main living areas. The kitchen is a standout feature with upgraded real

Key facts

• Tray ceiling
• Upgraded home
• Recessed lighting

Tags

• UPGRADED HOME
• QUALITY FINISHES
• BRIGHT OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• RECESSED LIGHTING
• TRAY CEILING
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee ($570) covering sewer, trash, and park rent; One-time buy-in fee ($500); One-time other fee ($50); Association amenities include building maintenance, management plan, master insurance, playground, common acreage, RV parking, and trash removal; Located in a mobile home co-op (Tanglewood Park Co-op) with park approval

Exterior

• Parking: Paved driveway
• Utilities: Community water; Community sewer; Electric service with circuit breakers (Eversource); LP/Bottle gas available (propane); Fiber optic and high-speed internet available
• Home design: Manufactured home (Manuf/Mobile); Titan Affinity model
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt shingle roof; Built in 2025; Manufactured home construction
• Exterior features: Landscaped, level lot; Paved driveway; Easements present

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: 4 total rooms; Laminate flooring
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $153 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.2% in Keene — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#4 in NH, #192 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Keene School District (town): math 26% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #76 of 98 in NH (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fuller Elementary School (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #190 of 263 statewide, top 75%, 310 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools at 33% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 64 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 166 units permitted in Cheshire County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cheshire County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $7k; list at $145k implies a 2032% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 27% of rent.

Recommended offer $145,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.51%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $103,320
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10 Starling St	0.09mi	2/1.0	840 (0%)	12mo	$38,000	$45	82
6 Cardinal Cir	0.12mi	2/1.0	812 (-3%)	9mo	$135,000	$166	77
8 Cardinal Cir	0.10mi	2/1.0	924 (+10%)	2mo	$110,000	$119	74
17 Blue Jay Ct	0.03mi	2/2.0	952 (+13%)	4mo	$99,900	$105	73
10 Phoebe Ct	0.13mi	2/1.0	784 (-7%)	8mo	$28,500	$36	72
19 Blue Jay Ct	0.01mi	2/1.0	910 (+8%)	12mo	$123,000	$135	72
15 Blue Jay Ct	0.04mi	2/1.0	924 (+10%)	12mo	$71,000	$77	68
46 Sparrow St	0.09mi	2/2.0	952 (+13%)	12mo	$140,000	$147	63
33 Oriole Ave	0.09mi	2/1.0	952 (+13%)	10mo	$117,000	$123	61
40 Starling St	0.16mi	3/1.5 (+1)	924 (+10%)	10mo	$75,000	$81	61
5 Starling St	0.19mi	2/2.0	952 (+13%)	12mo	$149,900	$157	58
90 Sparrow St	0.30mi	2/1.0	960 (+14%)	9mo	$175,000	$182	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-12,500
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $6,874
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Hampshire: 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+1
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Has just-cause statute; 30-day notice; landlord-leaning vs. neighbors.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 03431

• Home prices YoY: -34.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 64
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,119 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$131 /mo · $1,567/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$570
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$445
• Net cashflow: $153

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,926

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $235	-5% $194	+0% $153	+5% $112	+10% $71
Rent	-10% $-15	-5% $69	+0% $153	+5% $236	+10% $320
Rate	-1.0pp $226	-0.5pp $190	base $153	+0.5pp $115	+1.0pp $77

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
794 Court St Unit D Keene, NH	2.0	1.0	924	$2,300	$2.49	44d	1	0.23mi
489 Elm St Keene, NH	2.0	1.0	880	$2,400	$2.73	44d	1	1.26mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $570 · $6,840/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-17
   listed $145,000 Active
3. 1994-10-01
   soldstatus $6,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,567 · $131/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,364 · $197/mo
• Expected delta: +$797/yr (+$66/mo · 50.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,429
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$1,567
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,034
• − Management: −$2,034
• − HOA: −$6,840
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$112
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$27
• After-tax cash flow: $1,859/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Keene School District
• NCES district ID: 3304050
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,158
• Composite: 31.62/100
• National rank: #5943
• State rank: #76 of 98 in NH

Livability — Keene

• Score: 88/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #192

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Keene, NH
• County: Cheshire County · 25,065 people
• City population: 25,065
• Metro: Keene, NH
• Population (ZIP): 25,065
• Household income: $79,541
• Rent vs Own: 43.8% rent · 56.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 716.0

Population outlook (Cheshire County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 74,613 people
• By 2030: 72,495 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 66,778 · -10.5%
• By 2050: 60,963 · -18.3%
• By 2075: 49,511 · -33.6%
• By 2100: 39,687 · -46.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Slovak 4% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cheshire

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.4% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.8pp toward R · 2008: 27.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+17.2 2016: D+12.6 2012: D+24.8 2008: D+27.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -203.55%
• Current HPI: 387.6804
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.43%
• Metro: Keene, NH
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+2032.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — PrimeMLS
• 2026-05-17 Listed $145,000 PrimeMLS
• 1994-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $6,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+16.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,567 · +346.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.