21158 E Stonecrest Dr

Queen Creek, AZ 85142

$367,000D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,762 sqft · Built 2007 · SingleFamily · Active · 52 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,440/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,925
• Tax + insurance: −$277
• HOA: −$129
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$512
• Net cashflow: $-403/mo
• Annual: $-4,838/yr
• Cap rate: 4.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.71%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $102,760

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $367k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-403 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $296k (19.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $244k (33.5% below list).
• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($356k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $244k (33.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#27 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, commute F, cost of living F.
• Queen Creek Unified District (4245) (suburban): math 55% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #25 of 249 in AZ (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Faith Mather Sossaman Elementary School (math 73% / reading 61%, grade B+, #73 of 1,109 statewide, top 7%, 1,114 students, 14% FRL); Queen Creek Junior High School (math 49% / reading 53%, grade C, #23 of 218 statewide, top 11%, 554 students, 17% FRL); Queen Creek High School (math 43% / reading 45%, grade F, #64 of 381 statewide, top 17%, 2,233 students, 15% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 850 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $164k; list at $367k implies a 124% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.7% in Queen Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.