21158 E Stonecrest Dr · Queen Creek, AZ 85142

$367,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,762 sqft · SingleFamily · 52 Days on market

Built 2007 3,440 sqft lot $208/sqft · 14% below area Est $429k · 14% under $129/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful two story home in the Indigo Trails community in Queen Creek! This move in ready home offers an open floor plan design, 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bath, large and spacious master bedroom, and a private patio. The HUGE driveway adds plenty of parking space. Easy access to everywhere with nearby shopping and services. The trifecta of properties could be the perfect starter home, investment property, or lock and leave vacation home!

Key facts

• Double sinks
• Functional island
• Covered patio

Tags

• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• FUNCTIONAL ISLAND
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• DOUBLE SINKS
• SPACIOUS WALK IN CLOSET
• COVERED PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $129; Association covers grounds maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Covered 2 parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Security: Owned security system
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Synthetic stucco and painted wood frame construction; Tile roof
• Exterior features: Block fence; Desert front landscaping; Desert back landscaping

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Dishwasher; Kitchen island; Laminate counters; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Has heating; Has cooling; Cooling: Other
• Interior features: Double vanity; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island; Full bath in primary bedroom; Has fireplace; Laminate counters
• Laundry & utility: Upstairs laundry; Washer/dryer hookup only

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $367k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-403 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $296k (19.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $244k (33.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $244k (33.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.7% in Queen Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#27 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, commute F, cost of living F.
• Queen Creek Unified District (4245) (suburban): math 55% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #25 of 249 in AZ (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Faith Mather Sossaman Elementary School (math 73% / reading 61%, grade B+, #73 of 1,109 statewide, top 7%, 1,114 students, 14% FRL); Queen Creek Junior High School (math 49% / reading 53%, grade C, #23 of 218 statewide, top 11%, 554 students, 17% FRL); Queen Creek High School (math 43% / reading 45%, grade F, #64 of 381 statewide, top 17%, 2,233 students, 15% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 850 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($356k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $164k; list at $367k implies a 124% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $243,996 (33.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.71%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $428,915
• List price: $367,000
• Delta: -14.44%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21187 E Tierra Grande Dr	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,675 (-5%)	1mo	$390,000	$233	88
21182 E Stonecrest Dr	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,675 (-5%)	3mo	$360,000	$215	87
22657 S 212th St	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,681 (-5%)	3mo	$440,000	$262	76
21157 E Estrella Rd	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,759 (-0%)	1mo	$520,000	$296	73
21013 E Aldecoa Dr	0.25mi	3/2.5	1,567 (-11%)	1mo	$399,999	$255	69
21072 E Stonecrest Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,528 (-13%)	1mo	$396,000	$259	67
21382 E Via Del Rancho St	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,721 (-2%)	4mo	$415,000	$241	66
22938 S 208th St	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,870 (+6%)	3mo	$459,000	$245	62
21136 E Poco Calle --	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,659 (-6%)	1mo	$465,000	$280	56
21062 E Via Del Sol --	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,659 (-6%)	3mo	$462,500	$279	52
23277 S 215th St	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,692 (-4%)	2mo	$409,000	$242	52
21026 E Calle Luna Ct	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,638 (-7%)	3mo	$515,000	$314	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-91,015
• Equity at exit: $54,721

10-year hold

• IRR: -34.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.32×
• Total profit: $-135,273
• Equity at exit: $31,731

Cash invested: $102,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85142

• Home prices YoY: -30.6%
• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 850
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,440 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,925
• Tax from tax record: −$124 /mo · $1,491/yr
• Insurance: −$153
• HOA: −$129
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$512
• Net cashflow: $-403

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,950

Max offer price $295,778

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $91,750
• Closing costs: $11,010
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21122 E Stonecrest Dr Queen Creek, AZ	3.0	2.5	1864	$2,100	$1.13	5d	1	0.06mi
21187 E Tierra Grande Dr Queen Creek, AZ	3.0	2.5	1675	$2,100	$1.25	24d	1	0.06mi
22224 S 211th Way Queen Creek, AZ	4.0	2.5	2171	$2,400	$1.11	3d	1	0.10mi
21162 E Aspen Valley Dr Queen Creek, AZ	4.0	2.0	1681	$2,750	$1.64	16d	1	0.16mi
20902 E Via del Palo Queen Creek, AZ	4.0	2.0	1678	$2,215	$1.32	17d	1	0.33mi
22203 S 214th St Queen Creek, AZ	3.0	2.0	1695	$2,500	$1.47	24d	1	0.33mi
21937 S 214th St Queen Creek, AZ	3.0	2.0	1783	$2,405	$1.35	24d	1	0.42mi
21937 S 214th St Queen Creek, AZ	3.0	2.0	1783	$2,305	$1.29	16d	1	0.42mi
21316 E Via del Rancho Queen Creek, AZ	4.0	2.0	2400	$2,495	$1.04	43d	1	0.43mi
21059 E Estrella Rd Queen Creek, AZ	4.0	3.0	1944	$2,535	$1.30	1d	1	0.63mi
21260 E Calle Luna Queen Creek, AZ	3.0	2.0	1284	$1,999	$1.56	5d	1	0.64mi
23277 S 215th St Queen Creek, AZ	4.0	2.0	1692	$2,400	$1.42	43d	1	0.71mi
23196 S 216th St Queen Creek, AZ	4.0	2.5	2111	$2,470	$1.17	24d	1	0.73mi
21870 E Gold Canyon Dr Queen Creek, AZ	3.0	2.0	1320	$2,150	$1.63	43d	1	0.82mi
21319 E Alyssa Rd Queen Creek, AZ	3.0	2.0	1476	$2,400	$1.63	24d	1	0.87mi
21319 E Alyssa Rd Queen Creek, AZ	3.0	2.0	1476	$2,400	$1.63	43d	1	0.87mi
21858 E Puesta del Sol Queen Creek, AZ	3.0	2.0	1320	$1,895	$1.44	10d	1	0.87mi
21858 E Puesta del Sol Queen Creek, AZ	3.0	2.0	1320	$1,895	$1.44	24d	1	0.87mi
20866 S 213th St Queen Creek, AZ	3.0	2.0	1385	$2,800	$2.02	14d	1	0.95mi
21005 E Pecan Ln Queen Creek, AZ	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,400	$1.60	5d	1	0.98mi
20450 E Ocotillo Rd Queen Creek, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	935	$2,243	$2.40	1d	17	0.98mi
22063 E Via del Rancho Queen Creek, AZ	4.0	2.0	2046	$2,725	$1.33	18d	1	1.00mi
20390 E Broadmoor Trl Queen Creek, AZ	4.0	2.5	1959	$2,700	$1.38	5d	1	1.05mi
21192 E Saddle Way Queen Creek, AZ	3.0	2.0	1859	$2,495	$1.34	1d	1	1.06mi
21192 E Saddle Way Queen Creek, AZ	3.0	2.0	1859	$2,595	$1.40	18d	1	1.06mi
21442 E Saddle Ct Queen Creek, AZ	4.0	2.0	1916	$2,595	$1.35	14d	1	1.09mi
22217 E Via del Palo Queen Creek, AZ	3.0	2.5	1775	$2,100	$1.18	43d	1	1.11mi
20821 E Saddle Way Queen Creek, AZ	4.0	2.0	2300	$3,395	$1.48	16d	1	1.13mi
20588 S Ellsworth Lp Rd Queen Creek, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1053	$2,340	$2.22	1d	36	1.40mi
22352 E Via del Palo Queen Creek, AZ	4.0	2.0	1863	$2,149	$1.15	10d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $129 · $1,548/yr

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $367,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $367,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $367,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $367,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $367,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $367,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $367,000 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $367,000 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $367,000 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $367,000 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $378,000 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $378,000 Active 36 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $378,000 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $378,000 Active 34 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    price $378,000 519-char remark
16. 2026-04-27
    listed $383,000 Active 519-char remark
17. 2016-01-21
    soldstatus $164,000 Closed 432-char remark

    Show marketing remark (432 chars)

    Beautiful two story home in the Indigo Trails community in Queen Creek! This move in ready home offers an open floor plan design, 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bath, large and spacious master bedroom, and a private patio. The HUGE driveway adds plenty of parking space. Easy access to everywhere with nearby shopping and services. The trifecta of properties could be the perfect starter home, investment property, or lock and leave vacation home!

18. 2016-01-21
    soldstatus $164,000

    Show marketing remark (432 chars)

    Beautiful two story home in the Indigo Trails community in Queen Creek! This move in ready home offers an open floor plan design, 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bath, large and spacious master bedroom, and a private patio. The HUGE driveway adds plenty of parking space. Easy access to everywhere with nearby shopping and services. The trifecta of properties could be the perfect starter home, investment property, or lock and leave vacation home!

19. 2016-01-06
    status Pending 432-char remark

    Show marketing remark (432 chars)

    Beautiful two story home in the Indigo Trails community in Queen Creek! This move in ready home offers an open floor plan design, 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bath, large and spacious master bedroom, and a private patio. The HUGE driveway adds plenty of parking space. Easy access to everywhere with nearby shopping and services. The trifecta of properties could be the perfect starter home, investment property, or lock and leave vacation home!

20. 2015-12-18
    listed $174,988 Active 432-char remark

    Show marketing remark (432 chars)

    Beautiful two story home in the Indigo Trails community in Queen Creek! This move in ready home offers an open floor plan design, 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bath, large and spacious master bedroom, and a private patio. The HUGE driveway adds plenty of parking space. Easy access to everywhere with nearby shopping and services. The trifecta of properties could be the perfect starter home, investment property, or lock and leave vacation home!

21. 2014-12-26
    historical
22. 2014-10-17
    price $170,000
23. 2014-09-26
    price $173,500
24. 2014-08-30
    price $179,798
25. 2014-08-20
    price $179,898
26. 2014-08-19
    price $179,899
27. 2014-08-08
    price $179,900
28. 2014-07-30
    price $183,999
29. 2014-06-10
    price $184,000
30. 2014-05-17
    listed $189,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,491 · $124/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,422 · $202/mo
• Expected delta: +$931/yr (+$78/mo · 62.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,280
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,558
• − Property taxes: −$1,491
• − Insurance: −$1,835
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,342
• − Management: −$2,342
• − HOA: −$1,548
• − Depreciation: −$10,676
• Taxable loss: −$11,513
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,763
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,075/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Queen Creek Unified District (4245)
• NCES district ID: 0406810
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $84,928
• Composite: 49.46/100
• National rank: #2003
• State rank: #25 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Queen Creek

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #27
• US rank: #5874

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Queen Creek, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 93,700
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 93,700
• Household income: $129,367
• Rent vs Own: 11.8% rent · 88.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1106.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 14% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.50%
• Current HPI: 329.9469
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.59%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+93.3% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $367,000 ARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $378,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Listed $383,000 ARMLS
• 2016-01-21 Sold (Public Records) $164,000 Public Records
• 2016-01-21 Sold (MLS) $164,000 ARMLS
• 2016-01-06 Pending — ARMLS
• 2015-12-18 Listed $174,988 ARMLS
• 2014-12-26 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2014-10-17 Price Changed $170,000 ARMLS
• 2014-09-26 Price Changed $173,500 ARMLS
• 2014-08-30 Price Changed $179,798 ARMLS
• 2014-08-20 Price Changed $179,898 ARMLS
• 2014-08-19 Price Changed $179,899 ARMLS
• 2014-08-08 Price Changed $179,900 ARMLS
• 2014-07-30 Price Changed $183,999 ARMLS
• 2014-06-10 Price Changed $184,000 ARMLS
• 2014-05-17 Listed $189,900 ARMLS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,491 · -3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.