264 Washington Ave

Jamesport, NY 11947

$895,000C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,809 sqft · Built 1887 · SingleFamily · Pending · 359 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $8,136/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,693
• Tax + insurance: −$771
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,709
• Net cashflow: $964/mo
• Annual: $11,563/yr
• Cap rate: 7.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.61%
• DSCR: 1.21
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $250,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $895k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $964 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $814k (9.1% below list).
• It's been on market 359 days — a 12% lower offer ($788k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $788k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 46/100 on livability (#1,185 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1887 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $251k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 359 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1887 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.