1812 Hill St

Three Rivers, TX 78071

$162,900C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Active · 122 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,769/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$854
• Tax + insurance: −$272
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $272/mo
• Annual: $3,259/yr
• Cap rate: 8.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.14%
• DSCR: 1.32
• 1% rule: 1.09%
• Cash to close: $45,612

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $163k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $272 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $163k).
• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $143k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#118 in TX, #3,769 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Three Rivers ISD (rural): math 46% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #287 of 826 in TX (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12 units permitted in Live Oak County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Live Oak County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.