1812 Hill St · Three Rivers, TX 78071

$162,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · SingleFamily · 122 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 0.52 ac lot $137/sqft · 18% above area Est $137k · 18% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.4/30.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this newly built home located in the heart of Three Rivers, offering modern comfort on a spacious 0.51-acre lot. This beautiful 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence features an open-concept layout designed for both everyday living and entertaining. The home showcases contemporary finishes, a bright and inviting living area, and a well-appointed kitchen with ample cabinetry and workspace. The split-bedroom floor plan provides privacy for the primary suite, which includes a full bathroom and generous closet space. Two additional bedrooms and a second full bath offer flexibility. Outside, enjoy the rare opportunity of a large half-acre lot—perfect for outdoor living, future improvements, or creating your own backyard retreat. Conveniently located near schools, shopping, and major roadways, this property combines new construction appeal with small-town charm. Move-in ready and waiting for its first owner—schedule your private showing today.

Key facts

• Newly built home
• Large half-acre lot
• Spacious lot

Tags

• NEWLY BUILT HOME
• SPACIOUS LOT
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN
• SPLIT-BEDROOM FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE HALF-ACRE LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $163k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $272 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $163k).
• Recommended offer: $143k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#118 in TX, #3,769 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Three Rivers ISD (rural): math 46% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #287 of 826 in TX (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12 units permitted in Live Oak County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Live Oak County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $143,352 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.14%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $137,496
• List price: $162,900
• Delta: 18.48%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1600 Brambleberry Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,225 (+3%)	9mo	$168,500	$138	55
504 Goebel Ave	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,300 (+9%)	15mo	$62,000	$48	53
1601 N Grand Prix Dr	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,310 (+10%)	14mo	$189,999	$145	37
1504 Cadillac Dr	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,353 (+14%)	23mo	$157,500	$116	23
1875 Cadillac Dr	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,025 (-14%)	24mo	$169,000	$165	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.82% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.97×
• Total profit: $44,112
• Equity at exit: $80,871

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.73×
• Total profit: $124,298
• Equity at exit: $130,917

Cash invested: $45,612 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78071

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,769 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$854
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$204 /mo · $2,444/yr
• Insurance: −$68
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $272

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,425

Max offer price $162,900

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,725
• Closing costs: $4,887
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2103 Vista Rosa Unit A Three Rivers, TX	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,850	$1.48	13d	1	0.08mi
2105 Vista Rosa Unit B Three Rivers, TX	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,850	$1.48	13d	1	0.10mi
1870 King David Dr Unit 206 Three Rivers, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$750	$0.88	21d	1	0.47mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $162,900 Active 122 DOM
2. 2026-01-21
   listed $162,900 Active 968-char remark

   Show marketing remark (968 chars)

   Welcome to this newly built home located in the heart of Three Rivers, offering modern comfort on a spacious 0.51-acre lot. This beautiful 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence features an open-concept layout designed for both everyday living and entertaining. The home showcases contemporary finishes, a bright and inviting living area, and a well-appointed kitchen with ample cabinetry and workspace. The split-bedroom floor plan provides privacy for the primary suite, which includes a full bathroom and generous closet space. Two additional bedrooms and a second full bath offer flexibility. Outside, enjoy the rare opportunity of a large half-acre lot—perfect for outdoor living, future improvements, or creating your own backyard retreat. Conveniently located near schools, shopping, and major roadways, this property combines new construction appeal with small-town charm. Move-in ready and waiting for its first owner—schedule your private showing today.

3. 2002-10-20
   historical
4. 2001-10-20
   listed $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,225
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,125
• − Property taxes: −$2,444
• − Insurance: −$814
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,698
• − Management: −$1,698
• − Depreciation: −$4,739
• Taxable income: $707
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$170
• After-tax cash flow: $3,089/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This newly built home in Three Rivers offers a good condition with a good ROI potential for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value.
• Rental Clean gutters — Clean gutters improve drainage and reduce maintenance costs for tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Rental Clean gutters — Clean gutters improve drainage and reduce maintenance costs for tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Three Rivers ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842690
• Math proficiency: 46% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,554
• Composite: 37.6/100
• National rank: #4381
• State rank: #287 of 826 in TX

Livability — Three Rivers

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #118
• US rank: #3769

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,478

Population outlook (Live Oak County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,886 people
• By 2030: 14,793 · +6.5%
• By 2040: 16,633 · +19.8%
• By 2050: 18,511 · +33.3%
• By 2075: 23,859 · +71.8%
• By 2100: 26,396 · +90.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 56% White 33% Two or more races 14% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 54% English-only · Spanish 45% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Live Oak

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.6) · D 14.9% · R 84.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: -49.0pp · 2024: -69.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.6 2020: R+66.9 2016: R+63.5 2012: R+54.5 2008: R+49.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.82%
• Current HPI: 134.8309
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+262.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-21 Listed $162,900 CBMLS
• 2002-10-20 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2001-10-20 Listed $45,000 LERA