5153 Haberman Dr

Spring Lake, FL 34601

$79,900B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 784 sqft · Built 1985 · Manufactured · Pending · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,226/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax + insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$257
• Net cashflow: $417/mo
• Annual: $5,003/yr
• Cap rate: 12.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.36%
• DSCR: 2.00
• 1% rule: 1.53%
• Cash to close: $22,372

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $417 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#819 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Hernando (suburban): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #38 of 73 in FL (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Eastside Elementary School (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,709 of 2,144 statewide, top 81%, 737 students, 73% FRL); D. S. Parrott Middle School (math 40% / reading 40%, grade F, #368 of 571 statewide, top 65%, 835 students, 67% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 37% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hernando average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 498 active listings in the ZIP; 2,505 units permitted in Hernando County in 2024 (318 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hernando County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 9 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $23k; list at $80k implies a 247% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.2% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.6% vs local median 1.8% in Spring Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.