Residence 1652 Plan

Fresno, CA 93727

$414,990F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,652 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 899 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,370/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,430
• Tax + insurance: −$772
• HOA: −$161
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$708
• Net cashflow: $-701/mo
• Annual: $-8,410/yr
• Cap rate: 4.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.48%
• DSCR: 0.71
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $129,741

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $415k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-701 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $362k (12.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $337k (18.8% below list).
• It's been on market 899 days — a 12% lower offer ($365k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $337k (18.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#469 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, employment D+, schools D.
• Clovis Unified (suburban): math 58% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #152 of 1,400 in CA (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 329 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,426 units permitted in Fresno County in 2024 (296 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fresno County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask is 4% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.7% in Fresno — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• At $3,370/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($87k/yr) (locally 2745% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 899 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?