Residence 1652 Plan · Fresno, CA 93727

$414,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,652 sqft · SingleFamily · 1039 Days on market

Excellent condition $161/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Cash flow +5.2/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 Bedroom 2.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Listed 1038 days

🏗️ New construction. The $414,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $465,869.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $415k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $313k (24.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $294k (29.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $294k (29.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#469 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, employment D+, crime F.
• Clovis Unified (suburban): math 58% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #152 of 1,400 in CA (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Temperance-Kutner Elementary (634 students, 79% FRL); Reyburn Intermediate (1,643 students, 58% FRL); Clovis East High (2,768 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 32% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 591 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 55d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,426 units permitted in Fresno County in 2024 (296 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fresno County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 1039 days — a 12% lower offer ($365k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask is 4% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $294,059 (29.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 1039 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.73%
• DSCR: 0.57
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $465,869
• List price: $414,990
• Delta: -10.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6687 E Home Ave	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,612 (-2%)	1mo	$481,990	$299	73
6596 E Cresthaven Dr	0.53mi	3/2.5	1,651 (-0%)	4mo	$417,820	$253	71
6532 E Cresthaven Dr	0.53mi	3/2.5	1,651 (-0%)	4mo	$405,820	$246	71
6554 E Crimson Dr	0.56mi	3/2.5	1,651 (-0%)	3mo	$429,820	$260	71
6552 E Clingstone Dr	0.58mi	3/2.5	1,651 (-0%)	3mo	$429,820	$260	70
6695 E Home Ave	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,782 (+8%)	0mo	$496,990	$279	70
6583 E Cresthaven Dr	0.57mi	3/2.5	1,651 (-0%)	4mo	$418,329	$253	70
6538 E Lamona	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,491 (-10%)	4mo	$440,000	$295	69
6592 E Clingstone Dr	0.60mi	3/2.5	1,651 (-0%)	4mo	$412,820	$250	68
6657 E Home Ave	0.32mi	3/1.8	1,491 (-10%)	2mo	$430,000	$288	64
6606 E Carmen Ave	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,782 (+8%)	4mo	$485,000	$272	61
6648 E Washington Ave	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,892 (+14%)	3mo	$460,000	$243	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-142,845
• Equity at exit: $69,463

10-year hold

• IRR: -42.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.62×
• Total profit: $-211,134
• Equity at exit: $40,280

Cash invested: $130,443 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 46 active · 103 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.3 mo (16%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $440,000 ($269/sqft)
• Median days on market: 71 d
• This list price: 35% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +4.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 93727

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 591
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,941 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,443
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$582 /mo · $6,988/yr
• Insurance: −$194
• HOA: −$161
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$618
• Net cashflow: $-1,057

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,279

Max offer price $312,854

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-736	-5% $-896	+0% $-1,057	+5% $-1,218	+10% $-1,379
Rent	-10% $-1,290	-5% $-1,174	+0% $-1,057	+5% $-941	+10% $-825
Rate	-1.0pp $-823	-0.5pp $-939	base $-1,057	+0.5pp $-1,178	+1.0pp $-1,301

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $116,467
• Closing costs: $13,976
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6563 E Tobey Ave Fresno, CA	4.0	2.0	1794	$4,695	$2.62	10d	1	0.14mi
6609 E Carmen Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	2.0	1782	$2,650	$1.49	144d	1	0.44mi
6596 E Cresthaven DR Fresno, CA	3.0	2.5	1651	$2,595	$1.57	123d	1	0.54mi
6579 E Madison Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	2.5	1704	$2,700	$1.58	127d	1	0.57mi
6446 E Meritage Dr Fresno, CA	3.0	3.0	1652	$4,395	$2.66	26d	1	0.76mi
6446 E Meritage Dr Fresno, CA	3.0	2.5	1652	$4,195	$2.54	10d	1	0.76mi
6345 E Meritage Dr Fresno, CA	3.0	3.0	1227	$2,500	$2.04	1d	1	0.76mi
6345 E Meritage Dr Fresno, CA	3.0	3.0	1227	$2,500	$2.04	55d	1	0.76mi
6692 E Cambridge Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	2.5	1971	$2,495	$1.27	184d	1	0.77mi
6193 E Brick Dr Fresno, CA	3.0	2.5	1512	$2,395	$1.58	160d	1	0.81mi
2279 N Hartford Dr Fresno, CA	3.0	2.5	1227	$2,350	$1.92	10d	1	0.82mi
6433 E Malbec Dr Fresno, CA	3.0	2.0	1412	$2,395	$1.70	10d	1	0.83mi
6052 E Bishop Ln Fresno, CA	3.0	2.5	1579	$2,250	$1.42	162d	1	0.84mi
603 N Filbert Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,150	$1.59	2d	1	0.85mi
603 N Filbert Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,150	$1.59	0d	1	0.85mi
6101 E Brick Dr Fresno, CA	3.0	2.5	1398	$2,200	$1.57	10d	1	0.86mi
7216 E University Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,295	$1.43	10d	1	0.87mi
2400 N Armstrong Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	3.0	1400	$900	$0.64	184d	1	0.88mi
6286 E Overlook Way Fresno, CA	3.0	2.5	1512	$2,395	$1.58	47d	1	0.89mi
6286 E Overlook Way Fresno, CA	3.0	2.5	1512	$2,395	$1.58	10d	1	0.89mi
6262 E Overlook Way Fresno, CA	3.0	2.5	1398	$2,375	$1.70	10d	1	0.90mi
6262 E Overlook Way Fresno, CA	3.0	3.0	1398	$2,400	$1.72	14d	1	0.90mi
538 N Burgan Ave Fresno, CA	4.0	2.0	1548	$2,300	$1.49	50d	1	0.97mi
352 N Millard Ave Fresno, CA	4.0	2.0	1838	$2,595	$1.41	107d	1	1.12mi
5925 E Tulare Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	2.0	1026	$2,115	$2.06	0d	4	1.25mi
134 N Purdue Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	3.0	1534	$2,400	$1.56	142d	1	1.29mi
2743 N Vahe Ave Fresno, CA	4.0	3.0	2103	$2,700	$1.28	184d	1	1.32mi
139 N Miami Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	3.0	1534	$2,400	$1.56	133d	1	1.33mi
6050 E Princeton Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	943	$2,120	$2.25	10d	3	1.35mi
6226 E Nala Dr Fresno, CA	3.0	2.5	1627	$2,350	$1.44	138d	1	1.35mi
7237 E Homan Ave Fresno, CA	4.0	3.0	2103	$2,895	$1.38	110d	1	1.36mi
6217 E Sydney Dr Fresno, CA	3.0	2.5	1650	$2,350	$1.42	0d	1	1.37mi
2808 N Vahe Ave Fresno, CA	4.0	3.0	2103	$2,695	$1.28	10d	1	1.37mi
5886 E Fillmore Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	2.0	1445	$2,295	$1.59	107d	1	1.39mi
5853 E Voorman Ave Fresno, CA	4.0	3.0	1792	$2,475	$1.38	151d	1	1.39mi
5949 E Laurel Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	2.0	1691	$2,400	$1.42	55d	1	1.40mi
6357 E Mono St Fresno, CA	4.0	2.0	1581	$2,650	$1.68	107d	1	1.45mi
2851 N Janice Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	2.0	1341	$2,395	$1.79	164d	1	1.46mi
2998 N Sophie Dr Fresno, CA	4.0	3.0	2165	$3,400	$1.57	1d	1	1.48mi
7170 E Amherst Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	2.0	1635	$2,595	$1.59	155d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $414,990 Active 1039 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $414,990 Active 1038 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $414,990 Active 1037 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $414,990 Active 1036 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $414,990 Active 1035 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $414,990 Active 1033 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $414,990 Active 1032 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $414,990 Active 1031 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $414,990 Active 1030 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $414,990 Active 1029 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $414,990 Active 1028 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $414,990 Active 1027 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $414,990 Active 1026 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $414,990 Active 1025 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $414,990 Active 1024 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $414,990 Active 1023 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $414,990 Active 1022 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $414,990 Active 1021 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $414,990 Active 1020 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $414,990 Active 1019 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $414,990 Active 1018 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $414,990 Active 1017 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $414,990 Active 1016 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $414,990 Active 1015 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $414,990 Active 1014 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $414,990 Active 1013 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $414,990 Active 1012 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $414,990 Active 1011 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $414,990 Active 1010 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $414,990 Active 1009 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $414,990 Active 1008 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $414,990 Active 1007 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $414,990 Active 1006 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $414,990 Active 1005 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $414,990 Active 1004 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $414,990 Active 1003 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $414,990 Active 1002 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $414,990 Active 1001 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $414,990 Active 1000 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $414,990 Active 999 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $414,990 Active 998 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $414,990 Active 997 DOM
43. 2026-09-25
    days on market $414,990 Active 995 DOM
44. 2026-09-24
    days on market $414,990 Active 994 DOM
45. 2026-09-23
    days on market $414,990 Active 993 DOM
46. 2026-09-22
    days on market $414,990 Active 992 DOM
47. 2026-09-21
    days on market $414,990 Active 991 DOM
48. 2026-09-20
    days on market $414,990 Active 990 DOM
49. 2026-09-19
    days on market $414,990 Active 989 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $414,990 Active 988 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 57 unhealthy d/yr today · 60 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,287
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,096
• − Property taxes: −$6,988
• − Insurance: −$2,329
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,823
• − Management: −$2,823
• − HOA: −$1,932
• − Depreciation: −$13,553
• Taxable loss: −$21,257
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,102
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,588/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for both resale and rental value through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and rental value ↑
• Both New flooring — Enhances interior aesthetics and value ↑

Zoned Schools

Elementary Temperance-Kutner Elementary Middle Reyburn Intermediate High Clovis East High

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clovis Unified
• NCES district ID: 0609030
• Math proficiency: 58% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $71,950
• Composite: 58.7/100
• National rank: #2003
• State rank: #152 of 1400 in CA

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Fresno

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #469
• US rank: #15907

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fresno, CA
• County: Fresno County · 1,042,971 people
• City population: 593,114
• Metro: Fresno, CA
• Population (ZIP): 84,107
• Household income: $87,466
• Rent vs Own: 36.2% rent · 63.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Fresno County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,042,971 people
• By 2030: 1,072,198 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 1,122,408 · +7.6%
• By 2050: 1,157,251 · +11.0%
• By 2075: 1,182,575 · +13.4%
• By 2100: 1,105,899 · +6.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% Asian 27% Two or more races 22% White 18% Black 5% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Languages at home: 54% English-only · Spanish 25% Other Asian/Pacific 13% Other Indo-European 6%

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Political lean MEDSL · Fresno

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.5% · R 50.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.1pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: D+7.8 2016: D+3.9 2012: R+2.9 2008: D+2.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -317.54%
• Current HPI: 379.1959
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.95%
• Metro: Fresno, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+3.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2024-03-30 Price Changed $414,990 Zillow
• 2024-03-14 Relisted — Zillow
• 2024-01-18 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-01-14 Price Changed $409,990 Zillow
• 2024-01-13 Price Changed $403,990 Zillow
• 2023-11-08 Listed $399,990 Zillow