44415 Aspen Ridge Dr

Northville, MI 48168

$665,000B

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,641 sqft · Built 2003 · Condo · Pending · 13 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $11,449/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,487
• Tax + insurance: −$638
• HOA: −$590
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,404
• Net cashflow: $4,329/mo
• Annual: $51,954/yr
• Cap rate: 14.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.90%
• DSCR: 2.24
• 1% rule: 1.72%
• Cash to close: $186,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $665k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($52k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($11k rent vs $665k).
• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#13 in MI, #205 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, amenities A+; Watch: commute F.
• Northville Public Schools (suburban): math 68% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #4 of 540 in MI (top 1%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $186k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 14.1% vs local median 1.8% in Northville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.