44415 Aspen Ridge Dr · Northville, MI 48168

$665,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,641 sqft · Condo public records · 13 Days on market

Built 2003 $590/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.6/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Never before offered and impeccably maintained, this rare Cape Cod end-unit condo in the sought-after Woodlands of Northville is the perfect blend of spacious living and low-maintenance convenience. Enter through the dramatic two-story foyer and immediately appreciate the open feel, soaring vaulted ceilings, and beautifully renovated kitchen featuring luxury quartz countertops, center island, stainless steel appliances, and quality finishes throughout. The main level offers multiple comfortable living spaces including a cozy fireplace gathering room, formal dining area, den/home office, and a beautiful three-seasons room overlooking the private wooded setting and patio. The spacious upper level features a loft area, two generously sized bedrooms, and a full bath offering flexible living space for guests or family. The finished walkout lower level adds incredible additional living space complete with a second full kitchen, full bath, and direct access to another private patio surrounded by woods. Pride of ownership shines throughout with updated mechanicals, refreshed primary bath, and remodeled kitchen. Perfect for downsizers looking for ample space without sacrificing comfort or functionality. Schedule your private tour today - this one will not last long. All data approximate. Buyer's agent to verify all information and review HOA bylaws and financials.

Key facts

• Renovated kitchen
• Vaulted ceilings
• Center island

Tags

• CAPE COD END-UNIT CONDO
• DRAMATIC TWO-STORY FOYER
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• RENOVATED KITCHEN
• LUXURY QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• CENTER ISLAND

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a $590 monthly fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential condominium; Two levels; Ground-level entry with steps; Brick construction
• Construction: Brick exterior
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in electric oven; Built-in refrigerator; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Disposal
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Finished walk-out basement; Fireplace in living room; 14 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $665k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($52k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($11k rent vs $665k).
• Cap rate 14.1% vs local median 2.4% in Northville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#13 in MI, #205 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, amenities A+; Watch: commute F.
• Northville Public Schools (suburban): math 68% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #4 of 540 in MI (top 1%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $186k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $665,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.72% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.90%
• DSCR: 2.24
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.90×
• Total profit: $168,235
• Equity at exit: $99,154

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.70×
• Total profit: $502,566
• Equity at exit: $57,497

Cash invested: $186,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48168

• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $11,449 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,487
• Tax from tax record: −$361 /mo · $4,328/yr
• Insurance: −$277
• HOA: −$590
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,404
• Net cashflow: $4,329

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,968

Max offer price $665,000

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $4,706	-5% $4,518	+0% $4,329	+5% $4,141	+10% $3,953
Rent	-10% $3,425	-5% $3,877	+0% $4,329	+5% $4,782	+10% $5,234
Rate	-1.0pp $4,664	-0.5pp $4,499	base $4,329	+0.5pp $4,157	+1.0pp $3,982

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $166,250
• Closing costs: $19,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16646 Brooklane Blvd Northville, MI	4.0	4.5	3282	$13,300	$4.05	17d	1	0.39mi
416 S Center St Northville, MI	3.0	2.5	1997	$5,000	$2.50	5d	1	1.28mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $590 · $7,080/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $665,000 Pending 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $665,000 Active Under Contract 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $665,000 Active Under Contract 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $665,000 Active Under Contract 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $665,000 Active Under Contract 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   statusdays on market $665,000 Active Under Contract 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $665,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $665,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $665,000 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-05-21
    listed $650,000 Active 1379-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1379 chars)

    Never before offered and impeccably maintained, this rare Cape Cod end-unit condo in the sought-after Woodlands of Northville is the perfect blend of spacious living and low-maintenance convenience. Enter through the dramatic two-story foyer and immediately appreciate the open feel, soaring vaulted ceilings, and beautifully renovated kitchen featuring luxury quartz countertops, center island, stainless steel appliances, and quality finishes throughout. The main level offers multiple comfortable living spaces including a cozy fireplace gathering room, formal dining area, den/home office, and a beautiful three-seasons room overlooking the private wooded setting and patio. The spacious upper level features a loft area, two generously sized bedrooms, and a full bath offering flexible living space for guests or family. The finished walkout lower level adds incredible additional living space complete with a second full kitchen, full bath, and direct access to another private patio surrounded by woods. Pride of ownership shines throughout with updated mechanicals, refreshed primary bath, and remodeled kitchen. Perfect for downsizers looking for ample space without sacrificing comfort or functionality. Schedule your private tour today - this one will not last long. All data approximate. Buyer's agent to verify all information and review HOA bylaws and financials.

11. 2026-05-21
    listed $650,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (1379 chars)

    Never before offered and impeccably maintained, this rare Cape Cod end-unit condo in the sought-after Woodlands of Northville is the perfect blend of spacious living and low-maintenance convenience. Enter through the dramatic two-story foyer and immediately appreciate the open feel, soaring vaulted ceilings, and beautifully renovated kitchen featuring luxury quartz countertops, center island, stainless steel appliances, and quality finishes throughout. The main level offers multiple comfortable living spaces including a cozy fireplace gathering room, formal dining area, den/home office, and a beautiful three-seasons room overlooking the private wooded setting and patio. The spacious upper level features a loft area, two generously sized bedrooms, and a full bath offering flexible living space for guests or family. The finished walkout lower level adds incredible additional living space complete with a second full kitchen, full bath, and direct access to another private patio surrounded by woods. Pride of ownership shines throughout with updated mechanicals, refreshed primary bath, and remodeled kitchen. Perfect for downsizers looking for ample space without sacrificing comfort or functionality. Schedule your private tour today - this one will not last long. All data approximate. Buyer's agent to verify all information and review HOA bylaws and financials.

12. 2026-05-20
    historical $650,000 1379-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1379 chars)

    Never before offered and impeccably maintained, this rare Cape Cod end-unit condo in the sought-after Woodlands of Northville is the perfect blend of spacious living and low-maintenance convenience. Enter through the dramatic two-story foyer and immediately appreciate the open feel, soaring vaulted ceilings, and beautifully renovated kitchen featuring luxury quartz countertops, center island, stainless steel appliances, and quality finishes throughout. The main level offers multiple comfortable living spaces including a cozy fireplace gathering room, formal dining area, den/home office, and a beautiful three-seasons room overlooking the private wooded setting and patio. The spacious upper level features a loft area, two generously sized bedrooms, and a full bath offering flexible living space for guests or family. The finished walkout lower level adds incredible additional living space complete with a second full kitchen, full bath, and direct access to another private patio surrounded by woods. Pride of ownership shines throughout with updated mechanicals, refreshed primary bath, and remodeled kitchen. Perfect for downsizers looking for ample space without sacrificing comfort or functionality. Schedule your private tour today - this one will not last long. All data approximate. Buyer's agent to verify all information and review HOA bylaws and financials.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,328 · $361/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,284 · $607/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,957/yr (+$246/mo · 68.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $137,386
• − Mortgage interest: −$37,250
• − Property taxes: −$4,328
• − Insurance: −$3,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$10,991
• − Management: −$10,991
• − HOA: −$7,080
• − Depreciation: −$19,345
• Taxable income: $44,075
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$10,578
• After-tax cash flow: $41,376/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northville Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2625980
• Math proficiency: 68% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 75% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $108,824
• Composite: 66.21/100
• National rank: #431
• State rank: #4 of 540 in MI

Livability — Northville

• Score: 88/100
• State rank: #13
• US rank: #205

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 24,713
• Population (ZIP): 25,039

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,675,273 people
• By 2030: 1,620,300 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 1,502,341 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 1,384,039 · -17.4%
• By 2075: 1,124,592 · -32.9%
• By 2100: 881,193 · -47.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Asian 19% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Italian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Other Indo-European 7% Other Asian/Pacific 5% Chinese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.0) · D 62.7% · R 33.7% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: 49.5pp · 2024: 29.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.0 2020: D+38.1 2016: D+37.3 2012: D+46.9 2008: D+49.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -198.06%
• Current HPI: 176.9122
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $650,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-21 Listed $650,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-20 Coming Soon $650,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,328 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.