606 Harolds Br

Pikeville, KY 41501

$162,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,000 sqft · Built 2019 · SingleFamily · Pending · 41 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,404/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$850
• Tax + insurance: −$326
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $-66/mo
• Annual: $-788/yr
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.27%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $45,360

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $162k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-66 ($-788/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $153k (5.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (13.3% below list).
• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($157k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $140k (13.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#139 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Pikeville Independent (rural): math 67% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #3 of 165 in KY (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Market conditions: 124 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pike County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.7% in Pikeville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.