606 Harolds Br · Pikeville, KY 41501

$162,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,000 sqft · SingleFamily · 41 Days on market

Built 2019 Good condition 5.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this newer model 4- bedroom, 2 bath home perfectly situated on a nice lot. If you've been looking for space without sacrificing location, this is it! Just behind Pikeville Medical Center- this home offers both privacy and quick access to town. Affordable, convenient, and move-in ready!

Key facts

• Move-in ready
• Privacy
• Newer model

Tags

• NEWER MODEL
• NICE LOT
• PRIVACY
• QUICK ACCESS TO TOWN
• MOVE-IN READY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $162k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-66 ($-788/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $153k (5.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (13.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $140k (13.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.7% in Pikeville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#139 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Pikeville Independent (rural): math 67% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #3 of 165 in KY (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 124 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pike County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($157k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,438 (13.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.27%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $446,000
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
626 Harold's Branch Rd	0.05mi	4/2.5	1,825 (-9%)	2mo	$255,000	$140	79
110 High Ridge Ct	0.44mi	4/3.0	1,792 (-10%)	1mo	$545,000	$304	57
139 Ridgeline Ln	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,790 (-10%)	9mo	$400,000	$223	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-30,375
• Equity at exit: $24,155

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-31,608
• Equity at exit: $14,007

Cash invested: $45,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41501

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Active inventory: 124
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,404 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$850
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$202 /mo · $2,430/yr
• Insurance: −$68
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $-66

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,487

Max offer price $152,504

Occupancy floor 100%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,500
• Closing costs: $4,860
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending 302-char remark

   Show marketing remark (302 chars)

   Welcome home to this newer model 4- bedroom, 2 bath home perfectly situated on a nice lot. If you've been looking for space without sacrificing location, this is it! Just behind Pikeville Medical Center- this home offers both privacy and quick access to town. Affordable, convenient, and move-in ready!

2. 2026-04-27
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (302 chars)

   Welcome home to this newer model 4- bedroom, 2 bath home perfectly situated on a nice lot. If you've been looking for space without sacrificing location, this is it! Just behind Pikeville Medical Center- this home offers both privacy and quick access to town. Affordable, convenient, and move-in ready!

3. 2026-03-17
   listed $162,000 Active
4. 2026-02-24
   listed $162,000 Active 302-char remark

   Show marketing remark (302 chars)

   Welcome home to this newer model 4- bedroom, 2 bath home perfectly situated on a nice lot. If you've been looking for space without sacrificing location, this is it! Just behind Pikeville Medical Center- this home offers both privacy and quick access to town. Affordable, convenient, and move-in ready!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,853
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,075
• − Property taxes: −$2,430
• − Insurance: −$1,476
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,348
• − Management: −$1,348
• − Depreciation: −$4,713
• Taxable loss: −$3,538
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$849
• After-tax cash flow: $61/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready home offers a good condition with a good ROI potential for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and rental value
• Both replace carpet — modernizes interior and improves rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and rental value ↑
• Both replace carpet — modernizes interior and improves rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pikeville Independent
• NCES district ID: 2104830
• Math proficiency: 67% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $33,735
• Composite: 53.69/100
• National rank: #1426
• State rank: #3 of 165 in KY

Livability — Pikeville

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #139
• US rank: #6715

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D- Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pikeville, KY
• Population (ZIP): 23,272

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,108 people
• By 2030: 51,235 · -7.0%
• By 2040: 43,573 · -20.9%
• By 2050: 36,797 · -33.2%
• By 2075: 24,330 · -55.9%
• By 2100: 15,611 · -71.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.4) · D 16.8% · R 82.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -51.6pp toward R · 2008: -13.8pp · 2024: -65.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.4 2020: R+60.7 2016: R+62.8 2012: R+50.5 2008: R+13.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -10.56%
• Current HPI: 193.2408
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — EKAR
• 2026-04-27 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2026-03-17 Listed $162,000 ImagineMLS
• 2026-02-24 Listed $162,000 EKAR