905 Falcon Rd

Northlake, TX 76226

$362,900D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,813 sqft · Built 2018 · SingleFamily · Active · 114 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,183/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,903
• Tax + insurance: −$782
• HOA: −$173
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$668
• Net cashflow: $-343/mo
• Annual: $-4,119/yr
• Cap rate: 5.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.05%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $101,612

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $363k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-343 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $302k (16.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $318k (12.3% below list).
• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($330k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $302k (16.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#936 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Northwest ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #120 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Justin El (math 40% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 605 students, 24% FRL); Medlin Middle (math 66% / reading 61%, grade B+, #115 of 1,662 statewide, top 7%, 991 students, 12% FRL); Byron Nelson H S (math 60% / reading 76%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 2,809 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 1130 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.8% in Northlake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.