905 Falcon Rd · Northlake, TX
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 3/10 · Minor
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $1,222 – $2,270
Heat risk 8/10 · Major
- Hot days now (above 110°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 23 days/yr
Wind risk 4/10 · Minor
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 19.0%
Air-quality risk 3/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 3 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 4 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the D grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- ARV discount +13.6/15.0
- Cash flow +8.2/30.0
- Schools +4.6/10.0
- 1% rule +3.8/10.0
- Livability +3.1/5.0
- Rent growth +2.9/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- DSCR +2.2/10.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$362,900
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
Move-in ready four-bedroom, two-bathroom home located in the vibrant Harvest Meadows community. This residence features a spacious open-concept floor plan where the kitchen seamlessly overlooks the main living areas, perfect for modern living. The inviting living room is highlighted by tall ceilings and a cozy fireplace, serving as the heart of the home. The updated kitchen is both stylish and functional, boasting granite countertops and stainless-steel appliances. The primary suite offers a private retreat, featuring a large walk-in closet for ample storage. The attached primary bathroom is well-appointed with a garden tub, a separate standing shower, providing multiple options for relaxation. Outside, you will find a fully fenced-in backyard, offering a secure space for outdoor activities and entertainment. As a Harvest resident, you’ll enjoy access to resort-style amenities including multiple pools, parks, dog parks, and a kayak and paddleboard lake. The community also features multiple playgrounds, two fitness gyms, walking trails, and even a community coffee shop, fostering a vibrant and connected atmosphere. Schedule your private showing today!
Key facts
- 6,273 sq ft lot
- 2 garage spots
- Built 2018
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $363k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-343 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $302k (16.7% below list).
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $318k (12.3% below list).
- Recommended offer: $302k (16.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
- Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.8% in Northlake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 62/100 on livability (#936 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
- Northwest ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #120 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
- Zoned schools: Justin El (math 40% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 605 students, 24% FRL); Medlin Middle (math 66% / reading 61%, grade B+, #115 of 1,662 statewide, top 7%, 991 students, 12% FRL); Byron Nelson H S (math 60% / reading 76%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 2,809 students, 0% FRL).
- Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 1130 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($330k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.88% ✗
- Cap rate
- 5.16%
- Cash-on-cash
- -4.05%
- DSCR
- 0.82
- GRM
- 9.5
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $420,071
- List price
- $362,900
- Delta
- -13.61%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2216 Blackrail Ct | 0.27mi | 4/2.0 | 1,806 (-0%) | 4mo | $400,000 | $221 | 84 |
| 1928 Quail Ln | 0.13mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,870 (+3%) | 3mo | $388,900 | $208 | 81 |
| 1604 Bunting Dr | 0.38mi | 4/2.0 | 1,812 (-0%) | 3mo | $399,000 | $220 | 80 |
| 1712 Kaiser Cv | 0.32mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,845 (+2%) | 2mo | $400,000 | $217 | 76 |
| 1725 Homestead Way | 0.49mi | 4/2.0 | 1,813 (0%) | 2mo | $400,000 | $221 | 76 |
| 1900 Cardinal Way | 0.10mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 2,040 (+12%) | 1mo | $385,000 | $189 | 68 |
| 1837 Turnstone Trl | 0.27mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,632 (-10%) | 0mo | $375,000 | $230 | 65 |
| 8809 Thompson Rd | 0.19mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 2,033 (+12%) | 1mo | $419,900 | $207 | 65 |
| 700 Gannet Trl | 0.54mi | 4/2.0 | 1,934 (+7%) | 1mo | $400,000 | $207 | 63 |
| 200 Oakmont Dr | 0.51mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,934 (+7%) | 2mo | $410,000 | $212 | 58 |
| 1428 11th St | 0.40mi | 4/3.0 | 2,067 (+14%) | 3mo | $450,000 | $218 | 51 |
| 509 Gannet Trl | 0.66mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 2,031 (+12%) | 2mo | $387,500 | $191 | 43 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 1.61% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -24.8%
- Equity multiple
- 0.17×
- Total profit
- $-84,793
- Equity at exit
- $54,110
- IRR
- -25.8%
- Equity multiple
- -0.17×
- Total profit
- $-118,436
- Equity at exit
- $31,377
Cash invested: $101,612 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Texas
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 76226
- Home prices YoY
- -24.4%
- Rents YoY
- 1.6%
- Active inventory
- 1130
- Price-to-rent
- 9.5×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $3,183 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,903
- Tax from tax record
- −$630 /mo · $7,566/yr
- Insurance
- −$151
- HOA
- −$173
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$668
- Net cashflow
- $-343
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $-138 | -5% $-240 | +0% $-343 | +5% $-446 | +10% $-549 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-595 | -5% $-469 | +0% $-343 | +5% $-217 | +10% $-92 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $-160 | -0.5pp $-251 | base $-343 | +0.5pp $-437 | +1.0pp $-533 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $90,725
- Closing costs
- $10,887
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 37 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1904 Cardinal Way Argyle, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2209 | $3,000 | $1.36 | 4d | 1 | 0.07mi |
| 916 Dove Cv Argyle, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2263 | $2,995 | $1.32 | 12d | 1 | 0.10mi |
| 1309 E Swan Trl Argyle, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1871 | $2,695 | $1.44 | 3d | 1 | 0.16mi |
| 1316 Millerbird Way Argyle, TX | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1806 | $2,900 | $1.61 | 0d | 1 | 0.16mi |
| 1821 Waxwing Trl Argyle, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2208 | $2,975 | $1.35 | 12d | 1 | 0.17mi |
| 2108 Blackrail Ct Argyle, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2046 | $2,850 | $1.39 | 6d | 1 | 0.18mi |
| 1513 Canary Ln Argyle, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2511 | $3,350 | $1.33 | 14d | 1 | 0.33mi |
| 1601 Bunting Dr Argyle, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2210 | $3,195 | $1.45 | 0d | 1 | 0.33mi |
| 1813 McGee Ave Argyle, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2491 | $2,450 | $0.98 | 14d | 1 | 0.45mi |
| 1809 McGee Ave Argyle, TX | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2571 | $2,950 | $1.15 | 0d | 1 | 0.45mi |
| 1712 Friendship Ln Unit NA Argyle, TX | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2400 | $3,950 | $1.65 | 3d | 1 | 0.46mi |
| 1724 Henderson Dr Argyle, TX | 4.0 | 2.0 | 2044 | $2,411 | $1.18 | 0d | 1 | 0.54mi |
| 616 Gannet Trl Argyle, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2169 | $2,800 | $1.29 | 6d | 1 | 0.61mi |
| 605 Gannet Trl Argyle, TX | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2209 | $3,100 | $1.40 | 26d | 1 | 0.64mi |
| 517 Gannet Trl Argyle, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1872 | $2,671 | $1.43 | 45d | 1 | 0.67mi |
| 1450 20th St Northlake, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2476 | $3,850 | $1.55 | 12d | 1 | 0.81mi |
| 109k Gannet Trl Argyle, TX | 5.0 | 3.0 | 2519 | $2,895 | $1.15 | 0d | 1 | 0.84mi |
| 1056 Homestead Way Argyle, TX | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2001 | $2,900 | $1.45 | 0d | 1 | 0.87mi |
| 200 Harvest Way Argyle, TX | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.5 | 1248 | $2,983 | $2.39 | 0d | 246 | 0.90mi |
| 721 10th St Argyle, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1894 | $2,550 | $1.35 | 45d | 1 | 0.93mi |
| 537 Parkside Dr Argyle, TX | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1702 | $2,499 | $1.47 | 26d | 1 | 0.95mi |
| 517 Parkside Dr Argyle, TX | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1691 | $2,500 | $1.48 | 9d | 1 | 0.96mi |
| 701 10th St Argyle, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1884 | $2,649 | $1.41 | 45d | 1 | 0.97mi |
| 724 4th St Argyle, TX | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2025 | $2,575 | $1.27 | 23d | 1 | 0.97mi |
| 512 Parkside Dr Argyle, TX | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2001 | $2,750 | $1.37 | 21d | 1 | 0.99mi |
| 512 Parkside Dr Argyle, TX | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2001 | $2,800 | $1.40 | 0d | 1 | 0.99mi |
| 909 Blossom Ln Unit 51 Argyle, TX | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1844 | $2,704 | $1.47 | 23d | 1 | 1.00mi |
| 809 Blossom Ln Unit 35 Argyle, TX | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1844 | $2,610 | $1.42 | 23d | 1 | 1.03mi |
| 1704 Laurel Ln Argyle, TX | 3.0–4.0 | 2.0–3.5 | 2116 | $3,380 | $1.60 | 0d | 11 | 1.05mi |
| 1804 Laurel Ln Argyle, TX | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2439 | $3,167 | $1.30 | 45d | 1 | 1.06mi |
| 824 Trailside Ln Argyle, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2453 | $3,250 | $1.32 | 45d | 1 | 1.06mi |
| 816 Trailside Ln Argyle, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1653 | $2,595 | $1.57 | 45d | 1 | 1.06mi |
| 416 4th St Argyle, TX | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2044 | $2,850 | $1.39 | 0d | 1 | 1.07mi |
| 420 4th St Argyle, TX | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2035 | $2,445 | $1.20 | 13d | 1 | 1.07mi |
| 2304 Clancy Dr Justin, TX | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2146 | $3,000 | $1.40 | 26d | 1 | 1.19mi |
| 2421 Stella Ln Justin, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2563 | $2,950 | $1.15 | 26d | 1 | 1.40mi |
| 2336 Shorthorn Dr Justin, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2035 | $3,100 | $1.52 | 19d | 1 | 1.48mi |
HOA detail
- Monthly dues
- $173 · $2,076/yr
- Likely covers
- landscapingpoolgym
Listing history 27 events
-
2026-06-22days on market $362,900 Active 114 DOM
-
2026-06-18days on market $362,900 Active 111 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $362,900 Active 110 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $362,900 Active 109 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $362,900 Active 108 DOM
-
2026-06-13pricedays on market $362,900 Active 106 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $369,900 Active 102 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $369,900 Active 101 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $369,900 Active 100 DOM
-
2026-06-04days on market $369,900 Active 97 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $369,900 Active 96 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $369,900 Active 95 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $369,900 Active 94 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $369,900 Active 93 DOM
-
2026-05-01price $374,900 1175-char remark
Show marketing remark (1175 chars)
Move-in ready four-bedroom, two-bathroom home located in the vibrant Harvest Meadows community. This residence features a spacious open-concept floor plan where the kitchen seamlessly overlooks the main living areas, perfect for modern living. The inviting living room is highlighted by tall ceilings and a cozy fireplace, serving as the heart of the home. The updated kitchen is both stylish and functional, boasting granite countertops and stainless-steel appliances. The primary suite offers a private retreat, featuring a large walk-in closet for ample storage. The attached primary bathroom is well-appointed with a garden tub, a separate standing shower, providing multiple options for relaxation. Outside, you will find a fully fenced-in backyard, offering a secure space for outdoor activities and entertainment. As a Harvest resident, you’ll enjoy access to resort-style amenities including multiple pools, parks, dog parks, and a kayak and paddleboard lake. The community also features multiple playgrounds, two fitness gyms, walking trails, and even a community coffee shop, fostering a vibrant and connected atmosphere. Schedule your private showing today!
-
2026-04-03price $382,400 1175-char remark
Show marketing remark (1175 chars)
Move-in ready four-bedroom, two-bathroom home located in the vibrant Harvest Meadows community. This residence features a spacious open-concept floor plan where the kitchen seamlessly overlooks the main living areas, perfect for modern living. The inviting living room is highlighted by tall ceilings and a cozy fireplace, serving as the heart of the home. The updated kitchen is both stylish and functional, boasting granite countertops and stainless-steel appliances. The primary suite offers a private retreat, featuring a large walk-in closet for ample storage. The attached primary bathroom is well-appointed with a garden tub, a separate standing shower, providing multiple options for relaxation. Outside, you will find a fully fenced-in backyard, offering a secure space for outdoor activities and entertainment. As a Harvest resident, you’ll enjoy access to resort-style amenities including multiple pools, parks, dog parks, and a kayak and paddleboard lake. The community also features multiple playgrounds, two fitness gyms, walking trails, and even a community coffee shop, fostering a vibrant and connected atmosphere. Schedule your private showing today!
-
2026-03-20price $389,900 1175-char remark
Show marketing remark (1175 chars)
Move-in ready four-bedroom, two-bathroom home located in the vibrant Harvest Meadows community. This residence features a spacious open-concept floor plan where the kitchen seamlessly overlooks the main living areas, perfect for modern living. The inviting living room is highlighted by tall ceilings and a cozy fireplace, serving as the heart of the home. The updated kitchen is both stylish and functional, boasting granite countertops and stainless-steel appliances. The primary suite offers a private retreat, featuring a large walk-in closet for ample storage. The attached primary bathroom is well-appointed with a garden tub, a separate standing shower, providing multiple options for relaxation. Outside, you will find a fully fenced-in backyard, offering a secure space for outdoor activities and entertainment. As a Harvest resident, you’ll enjoy access to resort-style amenities including multiple pools, parks, dog parks, and a kayak and paddleboard lake. The community also features multiple playgrounds, two fitness gyms, walking trails, and even a community coffee shop, fostering a vibrant and connected atmosphere. Schedule your private showing today!
-
2026-02-27$397,500 Active 1175-char remark
Show marketing remark (1175 chars)
Move-in ready four-bedroom, two-bathroom home located in the vibrant Harvest Meadows community. This residence features a spacious open-concept floor plan where the kitchen seamlessly overlooks the main living areas, perfect for modern living. The inviting living room is highlighted by tall ceilings and a cozy fireplace, serving as the heart of the home. The updated kitchen is both stylish and functional, boasting granite countertops and stainless-steel appliances. The primary suite offers a private retreat, featuring a large walk-in closet for ample storage. The attached primary bathroom is well-appointed with a garden tub, a separate standing shower, providing multiple options for relaxation. Outside, you will find a fully fenced-in backyard, offering a secure space for outdoor activities and entertainment. As a Harvest resident, you’ll enjoy access to resort-style amenities including multiple pools, parks, dog parks, and a kayak and paddleboard lake. The community also features multiple playgrounds, two fitness gyms, walking trails, and even a community coffee shop, fostering a vibrant and connected atmosphere. Schedule your private showing today!
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2024-08-07historical $2,590
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2024-05-16price $2,590
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2024-05-07price $2,645
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2024-04-16price $2,735
-
2024-04-09price $2,795
-
2024-03-13$2,810
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2023-10-12historical $2,735
-
2023-09-09$2,735
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2021-11-05soldstatus
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $7,566 · $630/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $7,566 · $630/mo
- Expected delta
- $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
- Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 4/10 Moderate 19% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $38,196
- − Mortgage interest
- −$20,328
- − Property taxes
- −$7,566
- − Insurance
- −$1,814
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$3,056
- − Management
- −$3,056
- − HOA
- −$2,076
- − Depreciation
- −$10,557
- Taxable loss
- −$10,257
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$2,462
- After-tax cash flow
- $-1,657/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Northwest ISD
- NCES district ID
- 4833180
- Math proficiency
- 48% ▼ -15.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 52% ▼ -8.00%
- Median HH income
- $85,315
- Composite
- 46.15/100
- National rank
- #2504
- State rank
- #120 of 826 in TX
Livability — Northlake
- Score
- 62/100
- State rank
- #936
- US rank
- #16625
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- County
- Denton County · 901,654 people
- Metro
- Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
- Population (ZIP)
- 43,587
- Household income
- $180,982
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 40.0
Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 1,053,010 people
- By 2030
- 1,192,269 · +13.2%
- By 2040
- 1,472,920 · +39.9%
- By 2050
- 1,746,506 · +65.9%
- By 2075
- 2,358,497 · +124.0%
- By 2100
- 2,779,183 · +163.9%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (76%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 76% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 10% Asian 7% Black 4%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 7%
- Common ancestry
- Italian 3% Romanian 2% Portuguese 2%
- Foreign-born
- 12% · Canada, South Korea, China
- Languages at home
- 87% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Denton
- 2024 margin
- R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
- 2008→2024 swing
- +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -81.81%
- Current HPI
- 253.1948
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 1.61%
- Metro
- Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.95%
- F500 in state
- 110
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 16 | $1,198B |
|
||
| Technology | 5 | $198B |
|
||
| Engineering / Construction | 4 | $72B |
|
||
| Energy Services | 3 | $60B |
|
||
| Utilities | 3 | $41B |
|
||
| Healthcare | 2 | $330B |
|
||
Price history
+13607.5% since first listed13 events — show timeline
- 2026-05-01 Price Changed $374,900 NTREIS
- 2026-04-03 Price Changed $382,400 NTREIS
- 2026-03-20 Price Changed $389,900 NTREIS
- 2026-02-27 Listed $397,500 NTREIS
- 2024-08-07 Rental Removed $2,590 RENTLY
- 2024-05-16 Price Changed $2,590 RENTLY
- 2024-05-07 Price Changed $2,645 RENTLY
- 2024-04-16 Price Changed $2,735 RENTLY
- 2024-04-09 Price Changed $2,795 RENTLY
- 2024-03-13 Listed for Rent $2,810 RENTLY
- 2023-10-12 Rental Removed $2,735 NTREIS
- 2023-09-09 Listed for Rent $2,735 NTREIS
- 2021-11-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
Property tax history
+37.5%/yrLatest (2025): $7,566 · -5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…