2507 Linwood Dr

Mansfield, TX 76084

$405,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,253 sqft · Built 2019 · SingleFamily · Active · 40 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,043/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,124
• Tax + insurance: −$1,010
• HOA: −$76
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$639
• Net cashflow: $-807/mo
• Annual: $-9,678/yr
• Cap rate: 3.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.53%
• DSCR: 0.62
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $113,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $405k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-807 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $263k (35.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $304k (24.9% below list).
• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($393k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $263k (35.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#243 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Mansfield ISD (suburban): math 47% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #125 of 826 in TX (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Judy Miller El (math 39% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,283 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 535 students, 42% FRL); Rogene Worley Middle (math 46% / reading 51%, grade C-, #392 of 1,662 statewide, top 24%, 686 students, 48% FRL); Mansfield Lake Ridge H S (math 62% / reading 72%, grade B, #163 of 1,632 statewide, top 11%, 2,653 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools at 40% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 427 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask is 13179% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 2.8% in Mansfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.