2507 Linwood Dr · Mansfield, TX 76084

$405,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,253 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 2019 6,011 sqft lot $180/sqft · 9% below area Est $429k · 6% under $76/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.7/10.0
• Cash flow +5.8/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0

Listing remarks

This Stunning 4-bedroom 2 bath home is located in a beautiful community that offers an ideal blend of comfort and style. Complete with a resort style community pool, community clubhouse, parks, walking paths and ponds. As you step inside you will be greeted by an open floor plan that connects the living, dinning and kitchen areas, perfect for entertaining. The heart of the home is the kitchens, featuring a generous island that provides ample space for meal prep and causal dinning. You'll also discover an office nook before retreating to the oversized primary bedroom, with a wonderful ensuite bathroom and expansive closet. The additional three-bedrooms offer versatility for a growing family

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Generous island
• Community clubhouse

Tags

• RESORT STYLE COMMUNITY POOL
• COMMUNITY CLUBHOUSE
• WALKING PATHS
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• GENEROUS ISLAND
• OFFICE NOOK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, and VA financing
• Financial info: Association fee collected annually
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA managed by First Service Residential; HOA covers management fees; Annual association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with two single doors; Garage has opener and faces the front; 2 covered parking spaces
• Security: Burglar alarm; Owned security system; Smoke detectors; Audio and video surveillance devices present
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Individual water meter; Concrete utilities (curbs/sidewalks); Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Built in 2019; Not attached to other properties
• Construction: Brick construction; Slab foundation; Shingle roof (not specified but common with listed construction materials)
• Exterior features: Covered porch(es); Wood fencing; Landscaped yard; Large backyard with grass; Sprinkler system; Subdivision setting; Concrete, curbs, and sidewalks; Community mailbox

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen island; Natural stone or granite countertops; Walk-in pantry; Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric cooktop
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all on the main level); Primary bedroom on main level with garden tub, separate shower, and walk-in closet
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Decorative lighting; High-speed internet available; Vaulted ceilings; One living area; One dining area; Total of 6 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $405k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-807 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $263k (35.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $304k (24.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $263k (35.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 2.8% in Mansfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#243 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Mansfield ISD (suburban): math 47% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #125 of 826 in TX (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Judy Miller El (math 39% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,283 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 535 students, 42% FRL); Rogene Worley Middle (math 46% / reading 51%, grade C-, #392 of 1,662 statewide, top 24%, 686 students, 48% FRL); Mansfield Lake Ridge H S (math 62% / reading 72%, grade B, #163 of 1,632 statewide, top 11%, 2,653 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools at 40% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 427 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($393k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask is 13179% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $262,524 (35.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.53%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $428,757
• List price: $405,000
• Delta: -5.54%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2608 Acton Dr	0.37mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,253 (0%)	1mo	$522,990	$232	73
2508 Lakeway Ln	0.24mi	3/3.0	2,527 (+12%)	2mo	$554,990	$220	63
2515 Wallingford Dr	0.19mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,557 (+14%)	1mo	$475,000	$186	60
2215 Birch St	0.61mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,230 (-1%)	6mo	$524,990	$235	58
2208 Birch St	0.66mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,367 (+5%)	2mo	$599,990	$253	52
2611 Alden Ln	0.32mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,554 (+13%)	4mo	$490,000	$192	50
2807 Durham Dr	0.56mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,090 (-7%)	7mo	$420,000	$201	47
2408 Hagen Dr	0.56mi	3/3.0	2,519 (+12%)	7mo	$518,990	$206	44
2418 Melrose Dr	0.67mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,098 (-7%)	7mo	$445,000	$212	42
2419 Melrose Dr	0.63mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,098 (-7%)	12mo	$475,000	$226	40
2605 Melrose Dr	0.66mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,462 (+9%)	9mo	$460,000	$187	38
2504 Veranda Way	0.74mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,524 (+12%)	1mo	$459,900	$182	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.32% appreciation · 2.39% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $96,511
• Equity at exit: $289,178

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.78×
• Total profit: $315,169
• Equity at exit: $557,206

Cash invested: $113,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76084

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 427
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,043 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,124
• Tax from tax record: −$842 /mo · $10,101/yr
• Insurance: −$169
• HOA: −$76
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$639
• Net cashflow: $-807

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,064

Max offer price $262,524

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-577	-5% $-692	+0% $-807	+5% $-921	+10% $-1,036
Rent	-10% $-1,047	-5% $-927	+0% $-807	+5% $-686	+10% $-566
Rate	-1.0pp $-603	-0.5pp $-704	base $-807	+0.5pp $-911	+1.0pp $-1,018

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $101,250
• Closing costs: $12,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1612 Birch St Mansfield, TX	4.0	3.0	2593	$3,399	$1.31	26d	1	1.14mi
3724 Twin Pines Dr Midlothian, TX	4.0	3.0	2389	$3,200	$1.34	26d	1	1.47mi
3722 Autumncrest St Midlothian, TX	4.0	3.0	2457	$3,100	$1.26	9d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $76 · $912/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $405,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $405,000 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $405,000 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $405,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $405,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $405,000 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $405,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $405,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-05-02
   listed $3,050
10. 2026-05-01
    listed $405,000 Active 969-char remark
11. 2025-06-06
    historical
12. 2025-05-08
    listed $435,500 Active
13. 2025-05-03
    historical $2,950
14. 2025-05-02
    historical
15. 2025-04-18
    status Active
16. 2025-04-13
    historical Active Option Contract
17. 2025-03-19
    listed $2,950
18. 2025-02-27
    listed $435,500 Active
19. 2020-12-09
    soldstatus
20. 2020-12-04
    soldstatus Sold
21. 2020-11-10
    status Pending
22. 2020-10-30
    historical Active Option Contract
23. 2020-10-21
    price $329,900
24. 2020-10-10
    status Active
25. 2020-10-01
    status Pending
26. 2020-09-21
    historical Active Option Contract
27. 2020-09-11
    listed $336,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $10,101 · $842/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,101 · $842/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,514
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,686
• − Property taxes: −$10,101
• − Insurance: −$2,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,921
• − Management: −$2,921
• − HOA: −$912
• − Depreciation: −$11,782
• Taxable loss: −$16,834
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,040
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,638/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mansfield ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828920
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $81,934
• Composite: 45.82/100
• National rank: #2558
• State rank: #125 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mansfield

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #243
• US rank: #5833

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mansfield, TX
• County: Johnson County · 147,987 people
• City population: 82,625
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,097
• Household income: $102,115
• Rent vs Own: 12.2% rent · 87.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 70.0

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 24% Black 11% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 18% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.32%
• Current HPI: 355.74
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.39%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-99.1% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-06-07 Rental Removed $3,050 NTREIS
• 2026-05-02 Listed for Rent $3,050 NTREIS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $405,000 NTREIS
• 2025-06-06 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-05-08 Listed $435,500 NTREIS
• 2025-05-03 Rental Removed $2,950 NTREIS
• 2025-05-02 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-04-18 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-04-13 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2025-03-19 Listed for Rent $2,950 NTREIS
• 2025-02-27 Listed $435,500 NTREIS
• 2020-12-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-12-04 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2020-11-10 Pending — NTREIS
• 2020-10-30 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2020-10-21 Price Changed $329,900 NTREIS
• 2020-10-10 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2020-10-01 Pending — NTREIS
• 2020-09-21 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2020-09-11 Listed $336,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+40.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,101 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.