329 State Highway 522

Coxton, KY 40806

$27,500B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 873 sqft · Built 1930 · Other · Pending · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $847/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$144
• Tax + insurance: −$109
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$178
• Net cashflow: $416/mo
• Annual: $4,989/yr
• Cap rate: 27.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 75.15%
• DSCR: 4.34
• 1% rule: 3.08%
• Cash to close: $7,700

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $28k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $416 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($847 rent vs $28k).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-0.8%/yr); year-one equity from $190 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $219 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#478 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Harlan County (rural): math 16% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #149 of 165 in KY (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Harlan County High School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #202 of 254 statewide, top 82%, 997 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 65% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP.
• Harlan County population projected at -34% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 9→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.